Serie A 2026-2027: Bologna vs Inter Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bologna

Home Team
22%
VS

Inter

Away Team
57%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 28.0
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Inter

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Bologna
Chance creation (xG data) +12.4 Inter
Attack +7.9 Inter
Defense +6.3 Inter
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.3 Inter

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 73% for Inter. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Inter attack & chance creation +6.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Bologna defense +1.0 Over
Bologna attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Bologna W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)

Inter W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.92
xGA (avg) 1.20
Clean Sheets 0

Inter

xG (avg) 3.28
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favored to win at 57%, with Bologna at 22% and a draw at 21%. The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Inter’s stronger chance creation, attack and defence underpin their advantage, while home advantage gives Bologna a counterweight. Inter have scored 18 goals in six league matches and remain unbeaten, compared with Bologna’s five goals and three defeats. Bologna’s 2-1 win away to Lecce followed a 1-1 draw with Torino, but they have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. Inter beat Parma 3-0 most recently, after drawing 2-2 with Roma. Away from home, Inter have averaged 3.3 expected goals but scored 1.5 goals, suggesting their finishing has lagged behind their chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Inter’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push toward a higher total, with Bologna’s defence also tilting the outlook that way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners, close to Bologna’s recent match totals of 13, 7 and 10. Inter’s totals have ranged from 4 to 11 across their last three matches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected match total is 28 shots. That is in line with Inter’s last three match totals of 28, 34 and 33, while Bologna’s totals were 28, 25 and 19.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bologna wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bologna vs Inter with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bologna vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.6 goals in Inter’s favour, consistent with their stronger win probability and better league record.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s home chance creation could make this closer if they turn more of it into goals. Inter’s away scoring has trailed their chance volume, so sharper finishing from Bologna may matter.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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