Serie A 2026-2027: Bologna vs Monza Prediction - 31 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bologna

Home Team
48%
VS

Monza

Away Team
26%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Bologna

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Bologna
Defense +3.9 Bologna
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Bologna
Attack +2.7 Monza
Chance creation (xG data) +1.1 Monza

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Bologna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Monza defense +5.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +0.9 Over
Bologna attack & chance creation +0.8 Over
Monza attack & chance creation +0.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Bologna W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)

Monza L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.89
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Monza

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are the most likely winners at 48%, with a draw and a Monza win each at 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 60%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Bologna also holding the better defensive record: they have conceded 12 goals in nine league matches, compared with Monza’s 22. Bologna’s recent away wins, 2-0 at Cagliari and 4-2 at Milan, add momentum, though their home scoring average is lower than their chances suggest. Monza have lost their last two, following a 4-0 win over Cagliari with defeats of 2-3 at Torino and 1-4 against Napoli. Their away games have brought 1.4 goals scored per match, against 2.8 conceded, while the expected-goals figures are 1.6 created and 1.6 conceded. That gap between actual and expected goals suggests their away results have been shaped by unusually generous finishing against them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Monza
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%. Monza’s defending is the strongest reason for that view: they have conceded 22 goals in nine matches, and their away record includes 2.8 conceded per game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Monza
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.9 corners. Recent matches have produced a range of totals, from four in Monza’s latest game to nine against Cagliari, so the estimate points to a busier count than some of the recent outings.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Monza
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Monza’s recent games have been active in this area, with 28 combined shots against Napoli and 24 at Torino.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bologna wins by X goals. Negative = Monza wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bologna vs Monza with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bologna vs Monza
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Bologna’s favour. That fits the home-win lean, while the equal draw and away-win probabilities leave room for a close contest.

Final Prediction

Monza’s ability to create chances away from home could disrupt the forecast, particularly against a Bologna side that has conceded 1.8 goals per home match. If Monza turn that threat into goals, Bologna’s home advantage may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel