Serie A 2026-2027: Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction - 29 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fiorentina

Home Team
40%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
32%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.9
Expected Shots: 30.3
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Fiorentina

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Fiorentina
Attack +3.8 Atalanta
Results & dominance +2.3 Atalanta
Defense +1.9 Fiorentina
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Atalanta

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Fiorentina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Atalanta defense +4.1 Over
Fiorentina attack & chance creation +3.5 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Atalanta attack & chance creation +0.8 Under
Fiorentina defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Fiorentina L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 4 - 2)

Atalanta D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.74
Clean Sheets 0

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 2.69
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are the likeliest winners at 40%, ahead of Atalanta at 32% and a draw at 28%. The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest reason for the slight Fiorentina lean, despite the sides’ recent form pointing in opposite directions. Fiorentina have lost three straight, most recently 1-2 away to Inter, after a 1-3 home defeat to Como and a 1-2 loss at Genoa. Atalanta, meanwhile, have taken four points from their last three, but their latest match was an 8-goal 4-4 draw with Frosinone. Atalanta’s attack and recent results offer a counterweight, while Fiorentina’s defensive record gives them reason for concern: they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. At home, Fiorentina are scoring 0.8 goals per game despite creating 1.8 expected goals, a gap that points to missed chances. Atalanta have also struggled to defend away from home, conceding 2.3 goals per game there.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Atalanta’s defensive vulnerabilities are the strongest case for goals, while Fiorentina’s chance creation also points toward an open game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.9 corners in total. Recent matches include high corner counts, notably 17 in Atalanta’s draw with Frosinone and 16 in Fiorentina’s loss to Como.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 30 shots. Atalanta and Frosinone combined for 46 in their latest match, evidence of the volume these sides can generate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fiorentina wins by X goals. Negative = Atalanta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fiorentina vs Atalanta with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fiorentina vs Atalanta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Fiorentina are favoured by about 0.1 goals, a very narrow margin that matches the close win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s ability to turn chances into goals could decide whether the home advantage matters. If they continue to finish below their chance quality, Atalanta’s attacking threat could be enough to overturn the slight home lean.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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