Serie A 2026-2027: Fiorentina vs Como Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fiorentina

Home Team
27%
VS

Como

Away Team
49%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 30.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Como

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Fiorentina
Chance creation (xG data) +8.1 Como
Attack +5.6 Como
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.9 Como
Defense +4.9 Como

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Como. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Como attack & chance creation +7.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Fiorentina attack & chance creation +1.9 Over
Fiorentina defense +1.3 Under
Como defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Fiorentina L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 3)

Como D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 0

Como

xG (avg) 1.95
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Como are favoured to win at 49%, with Fiorentina at 27% and the draw at 24%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, with a 60% probability.

Match Analysis

Como’s stronger attack and chance creation are central to the forecast. They have scored nine goals in six league matches, while Fiorentina have conceded 14. At home, Fiorentina average 0.7 goals against 1.4 expected goals, suggesting they have not fully converted their chances. Home advantage gives Fiorentina a route into the game, but their recent defensive record is a concern: they have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. They most recently lost 1-2 to Genoa, while Como drew 0-0 with Roma. Como’s attacking threat away from home could test a defence that has been vulnerable.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%. Como’s attack and chance creation are the strongest signal for goals, with the league’s scoring environment also pointing toward an open match.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.5 corners. Recent matches offer potential for a busy count, including Como taking 11 corners against Parma and Fiorentina-Napoli producing nine corners in total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 31 shots. Both sides have produced high shot counts recently, with Como taking 29 against Parma and Fiorentina attempting 17 against Napoli.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fiorentina wins by X goals. Negative = Como wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fiorentina vs Como with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fiorentina vs Como
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.4 of a goal in Como’s favour. That reflects the visitors’ stronger overall profile despite Fiorentina’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s chance to upset the forecast may depend on turning their home opportunities into goals. If Como’s away attacking threat instead carries over, Fiorentina’s recent defensive struggles could prove decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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