Serie A 2026-2027: Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Inter

Home Team
82%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
6%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 67%
Under 2.5: 33%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 27.6
Expected Spread: +1.8

Why the Model Leans Inter

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Inter
Chance creation (xG data) +9.0 Inter
Attack +6.8 Inter
Defense +6.3 Inter
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.5 Inter

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 93% for Inter. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Inter attack & chance creation +12.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Inter defense +2.3 Under
Fiorentina defense +1.9 Over
Fiorentina attack & chance creation +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 67% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Inter W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 2)

Fiorentina L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 2.98
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 1

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.40
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favoured to win, with an 82% probability, against 6% for Fiorentina and 11% for a draw. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 67%.

Match Analysis

Inter’s home advantage is reinforced by the gap in their attacking and defensive returns: they have scored 21 goals and conceded nine in seven league games, while Fiorentina have scored eight and conceded 17. At home, Inter average 3.8 goals from 3.0 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has recently run ahead of their chance quality. Inter have won their last two, beating Parma 3-0 before a 3-1 win away at Bologna. Fiorentina lost 1-2 away to Genoa before going down 1-3 at home to Como, and have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. That defensive record is a concern against an Inter side creating chances consistently.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean, at 67%. Inter’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence on that outlook, with Fiorentina’s defensive record adding to the case for multiple goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Fiorentina won 11 corners against Como, suggesting they can contribute to the count even if Inter control much of the match.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 28 shots in total. Inter had 17 against Bologna, while Fiorentina recorded 19 against Como, pointing to the potential for plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Inter wins by X goals. Negative = Fiorentina wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Inter vs Fiorentina with expected spread of +1.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Inter vs Fiorentina
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 1.8 goals in Inter’s favour, reflecting their strong home outlook and the difference in the teams’ results so far.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s 19 shots against Como show they can generate attempts even in defeat. If they turn that volume into goals, they could exploit the fact that Inter have conceded an average of 1.5 goals at home.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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