Serie A 2024-2025: Inter vs Genoa Prediction - 22 Feb 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Inter

Home Team
95%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 25 17 5 3 41 19 22 56
2 Inter 25 16 6 3 58 24 34 54
3 Atalanta 25 15 6 4 54 26 28 51
4 Juventus 25 11 13 1 42 21 21 46
5 Lazio 25 14 4 7 47 34 13 46
6 Fiorentina 25 12 6 7 41 27 14 42
7 Milan 24 11 8 5 36 24 12 41
8 Bologna 24 10 11 3 38 29 9 41
9 Roma 25 10 7 8 36 29 7 37
10 Udinese 25 9 6 10 32 37 -5 33
11 Genoa 25 7 9 9 24 33 -9 30
12 Torino 25 6 10 9 27 31 -4 28
13 Como 25 6 7 12 30 40 -10 25
14 Cagliari 25 6 7 12 26 39 -13 25
15 Lecce 25 6 7 12 18 41 -23 25
16 Verona 25 7 2 16 26 54 -28 23
17 Empoli 25 4 9 12 22 38 -16 21
18 Parma 25 4 8 13 30 45 -15 20
19 Venezia 25 3 7 15 22 41 -19 16
20 Monza 25 2 8 15 21 39 -18 14

Recent Trends

Inter L W L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 4 - 0)

Genoa W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.60
# Clean Sheets: 1

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Inter and Genoa is heavily tilted in favor of Inter, with a 95% chance of victory for the home side. The probability of Genoa securing an upset is a mere 2%, while a draw stands at 3%. With Inter currently holding the 2nd position in Serie A, and Genoa positioned at 11th, the predicted scoreline is expected to exceed 2.5 goals, with a 54% probability of a high-scoring affair.

Match Analysis

Inter's recent form has been a mixed bag, showcasing a win against Fiorentina at home but suffering defeats to both Juventus and Fiorentina in away fixtures. Despite these setbacks, Inter has been prolific in front of goal, with an impressive average of 2.4 goals scored in their last five games. Their defense, however, appears solid, conceding only 1.0 goals on average during the same period. This balance of attack and defense is further reflected in their expected goals metrics, which remain favorable. On the other hand, Genoa's recent performance has shown resilience with a win over Venezia and a draw against Torino, though they fell to Fiorentina. Genoa has struggled to find the net consistently, scoring an average of 1.0 goals per game in their last five fixtures while conceding 1.4. Their expected goals statistics suggest a slightly better offensive output than their actual goals, indicating potential for improvement. Despite this, their two clean sheets highlight a defensive solidity that could be crucial in their attempt to upset Inter.

Final Prediction

Inter holds the upper hand in this encounter, relying on their potent attack and robust defense to secure a win, especially at home. The key factor to watch will be Inter's ability to convert their scoring opportunities, considering their high expected goals metric. Genoa will need to capitalize on their defensive strengths and seize any chances that come their way to challenge Inter's dominance.

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