Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Fiorentina Prediction

Lazio

Home Team
28%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
50%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 17 13 0 4 38 15 23 39
2 Milan 17 11 5 1 28 13 15 38
3 Napoli 17 12 1 4 26 13 13 37
4 Juventus 18 9 6 3 24 16 8 33
5 Roma 18 11 0 7 20 12 8 33
6 Como 17 8 6 3 23 12 11 30
7 Bologna 17 7 5 5 25 17 8 26
8 Atalanta 18 6 7 5 21 19 2 25
9 Lazio 18 6 6 6 18 14 4 24
10 Sassuolo 18 6 5 7 23 22 1 23
11 Torino 18 6 5 7 20 28 -8 23
12 Udinese 18 6 4 8 18 29 -11 22
13 Cremonese 18 5 6 7 18 21 -3 21
14 Parma 17 4 6 7 12 19 -7 18
15 Cagliari 18 4 6 8 19 25 -6 18
16 Lecce 17 4 5 8 12 23 -11 17
17 Genoa 18 3 6 9 18 28 -10 15
18 Verona 17 2 6 9 13 28 -15 12
19 Fiorentina 18 2 6 10 18 28 -10 12
20 Pisa 18 1 9 8 13 25 -12 12

Recent Trends

Lazio ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)

Fiorentina ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 2

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.93
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina is predicted to secure a victory over Lazio with a 50% probability, while Lazio's chances of winning stand at 28%. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw is 22%. Both teams are struggling in the league, with Lazio in 9th place and Fiorentina languishing at 19th. The game is expected to have under 2.5 goals with a 48% probability, which aligns with the tight defensive performances both teams have displayed recently.

Match Analysis

In their recent outings, Lazio has shown a mixed bag of results. They suffered a defeat against Napoli at home, managed a draw against Udinese away, and played a goalless draw against Cremonese at home. Their recent form indicates a struggle to find the back of the net, with just one goal scored in their last three games. On the defensive end, they have displayed resilience, evidenced by two clean sheets in their last five matches. Advanced metrics show Lazio’s average goals scored stands at 1.0 with an expected goals figure of 0.832, indicating a slight underperformance in attacking efficiency. Fiorentina, on the other hand, comes into this fixture with a slightly better run, having secured two victories in their last three games. They defeated Cremonese and Udinese, both at home, while suffering a narrow loss to Parma away. Despite scoring fewer goals on average (0.6 per game), their expected goals average is higher at 1.31, suggesting potential for improvement in converting chances. However, their defense remains a concern, with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per game, coupled with only one clean sheet in their last five matches.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina's recent wins give them the edge against a Lazio side struggling to score. Their ability to create chances, as reflected in their expected goals, will be crucial. Keep an eye on Fiorentina's defense, which needs to tighten up to capitalize on their attacking opportunities and secure a much-needed win to climb out of the relegation zone.