Serie A 2026-2027: Lazio vs Parma Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
72%
VS

Parma

Away Team
12%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.7
Expected Spread: +1.2

Why the Model Leans Lazio

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lazio
Attack +7.1 Lazio
Chance creation (xG data) +5.7 Lazio
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.4 Lazio
Defense +5.0 Lazio

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 86% for Lazio. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lazio attack & chance creation +4.0 Over
Parma defense +3.4 Over
Lazio defense +2.5 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Lazio W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Parma L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 2.23
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Parma

xG (avg) 0.72
xGA (avg) 2.83
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are the clear favourites, with a 72% chance of winning, compared with 16% for a draw and 12% for a Parma victory. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 58%.

Match Analysis

Lazio’s home advantage is reinforced by a stronger attack and more consistent chance creation. They have scored 2.0 goals per home match and generated 2.2 expected goals there, while Parma have averaged just 0.3 goals away from home. Lazio have also conceded only four goals in seven league matches, giving them a solid defensive platform. Recent form adds to the contrast. Lazio’s latest result was a 3-0 win away to Juventus, their third straight victory. Parma’s most recent match was a 0-3 home defeat to Torino, following a 0-3 loss away to Inter. Parma did have 25 shots against Torino, but could not turn that volume into a goal. Lazio’s capacity to create chances and Parma’s recent difficulty defending are central to the forecast.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 58% probability. Lazio’s attack and chance creation point toward a higher total, as does Parma’s defensive record, while Lazio’s own defensive strength offers some restraint.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Lazio’s recent matches have produced 12, 13 and 9 corners in total, which supports a projection around that level.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Recent match totals have varied, but Parma’s 25 shots against Torino and Lazio’s 17 against Monza show the potential for a busy contest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Parma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Parma with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Parma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.2 goals in Lazio’s favour. That points to a home win by roughly a goal, rather than a narrow balance between the sides.

Final Prediction

Parma’s ability to turn a high shot count into genuine scoring chances is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If they repeat their volume against Torino with better finishing, Lazio’s defensive record will face a more serious test.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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