Serie A 2026-2027: Lecce vs Bologna Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lecce

Home Team
31%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
43%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 22.8
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Bologna

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lecce
Chance creation (xG data) +9.2 Bologna
Results & dominance +5.1 Bologna
Attack +4.1 Bologna
Defense +2.9 Bologna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Bologna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lecce defense +6.2 Over
Lecce attack & chance creation +6.0 Under
Bologna attack & chance creation +5.2 Under
Bologna defense +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Lecce L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)

Bologna D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.57
xGA (avg) 3.62
Clean Sheets 1

Bologna

xG (avg) 0.70
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are the most likely winners at 43%, with Lecce at 31% and a draw at 26%. Under 2.5 goals is the lean, at 56%.

Match Analysis

Bologna’s stronger chance creation and better recent results give them the advantage, but Lecce’s home setting is an important counterweight. Lecce’s 0-3 loss to Milan underlined their defensive vulnerability, while Bologna have conceded fewer goals on average. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, however, so their defensive advantage is not absolute. Bologna’s chance creation has not translated into goals: they have averaged 0.7 expected goals but 0.0 actual goals across the last five. That gap could matter against a Lecce side that has shown it can score at home, including in its 3-2 win over Monza.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The expectation is for fewer than three goals, with the under priced at 56%. Both teams’ attack and chance creation point toward the under, particularly Bologna’s low recent scoring output, though Lecce’s defensive record is a reason not to rule out goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 9.6 corners. Recent match totals have varied, but Bologna’s games have produced between seven and 17 corners, while Lecce’s have ranged from five to 12.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 23 shots in total. Recent games have shown both sides capable of contributing to a busy shot count, including Bologna’s 21 attempts against Sassuolo and Lecce’s 10 against Cagliari.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lecce wins by X goals. Negative = Bologna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lecce vs Bologna with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lecce vs Bologna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected goal margin is about 0.2 goals in Bologna’s favour. That points to a narrow away advantage rather than a clear separation between the sides.

Final Prediction

Lecce’s home advantage is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If Bologna continue to create chances without converting them, Lecce’s ability to score at home could turn a small away lean into a home result.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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