Serie A 2026-2027: Lecce vs Genoa Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lecce

Home Team
39%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
32%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Lecce

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lecce
Attack +3.0 Genoa
Chance creation (xG data) +1.1 Genoa

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Lecce. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lecce defense +5.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Genoa attack & chance creation +1.9 Under
Genoa defense +1.5 Over
Lecce attack & chance creation +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Lecce L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)

Genoa W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 2.51
Clean Sheets 1

Genoa

xG (avg) 0.70
xGA (avg) 1.46
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lecce are the most likely winners at 39%, with Genoa at 32% and a draw at 29%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 58%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Lecce a narrow boost, but Genoa’s attack and chance creation are rated slightly better. Lecce have been vulnerable defensively in recent home matches, while Genoa’s away scoring has been modest: they have averaged 0.3 goals from 0.7 expected goals away from home, suggesting their returns have lagged behind their chances. The recent form points in opposite directions. Lecce’s latest outing ended in a heavy 5-1 defeat at Frosinone, after a 2-0 home loss to Juventus. Genoa have since beaten Venezia 1-0 and Juventus 2-0, responding well to their earlier 2-0 defeat at Roma. Those wins also show a defence capable of keeping opponents out, though their away numbers remain a concern.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%. Lecce’s defensive record is the strongest reason for expecting goals, with the league scoring environment and Genoa’s defence also nudging the forecast towards the over. Genoa’s attack and chance creation temper that outlook, so it is not a decisive lean.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.5 corners in total. Recent matches produced 13 corners in Lecce’s trip to Frosinone and 15 in Genoa’s win over Juventus, pointing to potential for a busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Lecce’s latest match had 41 shots between the sides, while Genoa’s most recent game had 31, supporting a relatively high estimate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lecce wins by X goals. Negative = Genoa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lecce vs Genoa with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lecce vs Genoa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.1 goals in Lecce’s favour. That is consistent with the slight home-win advantage, but the probabilities suggest a close contest rather than a clear favourite.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s ability to carry their recent clean-sheet form into an away game could flip the forecast. If Lecce’s home defending again gives up clear chances, the narrow home advantage may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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