Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Lazio Prediction
Milan
Home Team
74%
VS
Lazio
Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Milan | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Napoli | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Inter | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Bologna | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 |
| 6 | Como | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Juventus | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Lazio | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Udinese | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 15 |
| 11 | Cremonese | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Torino | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Parma | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Pisa | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Lecce | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Genoa | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Verona | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Milan
- Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
Lazio
- Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.32
# Clean Sheets:
2
Lazio
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.52
# Clean Sheets:
4
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Milan and Lazio is tipped to favor the home side, Milan, with a commanding 74.0% probability of victory. Despite Lazio's valiant efforts, they face a mere 12.0% chance of securing a win, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 14.0%. Given these probabilities, Milan is strongly positioned to maintain their spot near the top of the Serie A standings, currently sitting in 2nd place. On the other hand, Lazio, ranked 8th, will be keen to upset the odds. With a 48.0% chance of the match having over 2.5 goals, the prediction leans towards a low-scoring affair.
Match Analysis
Milan enters this fixture with a solid run of form, having won two of their last three matches, including a notable 1-0 away victory against Inter and a crucial 1-0 home win over league leaders Roma. Their only lapse was a 2-2 draw against Parma. Key to their recent success has been their defensive resilience, epitomized by two clean sheets in these encounters. Milan's impressive average of 1.6 goals scored per game and a sturdy defense conceding only 0.8 goals on average, paired with expected goals data, highlights their ability to control matches effectively.
Lazio, meanwhile, has displayed inconsistency but showcased defensive solidity, boasting four clean sheets in their last five outings. Their recent performances include a strong 2-0 home win against Lecce and a frustrating 0-2 away loss to Inter. Lazio’s average of 0.6 goals scored per game reflects their struggles in front of goal, although their defense, allowing just 0.6 goals on average, remains a bright spot. The expected goals statistics suggest Lazio is creating fewer clear-cut chances than they might hope for, which could be a pivotal factor against Milan's robust defense.
Final Prediction
Milan's edge in this matchup stems from their superior form and defensive strength, which are expected to play significant roles in securing a victory. Their ability to keep clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities provides them with a distinct advantage. A key factor to watch will be Milan's ability to break down Lazio's defense, which has been resilient in recent games. If Milan can maintain their defensive discipline and capitalize on scoring chances, they are likely to emerge victorious.