Serie A 2026-2027: Monza vs Napoli Prediction - 28 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Monza

Home Team
32%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
42%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 69%
No Goal: 31%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 28.5
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Napoli

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Monza
Chance creation (xG data) +10.5 Napoli
Attack +5.7 Napoli
Results & dominance +3.7 Napoli
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Monza

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Napoli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Napoli attack & chance creation +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Monza defense +2.2 Over
Monza attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Napoli defense +1.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Monza L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 3)

Napoli D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Venezia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Frosinone (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monza

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 2.01
Clean Sheets 1

Napoli

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are the likeliest winners at 42%, with Monza at 32% and a draw at 26%. Goals lean over 2.5, with a 56% probability.

Match Analysis

Monza’s home advantage gives them a route into the match, but Napoli’s stronger chance creation is the main separator. Napoli have averaged 2.0 expected goals away from home, while Monza have conceded 2.0 expected goals per home game, suggesting the visitors can put the hosts’ defence under pressure. Monza’s latest result was a 2-3 defeat at Torino, after a 4-0 home win over Cagliari. Napoli drew 3-3 with Roma most recently, after losing 0-1 at Venezia despite taking 29 shots. That result points to a possible gap between Napoli’s chance creation and their goals, while Monza’s home scoring threat could make this closer than the standings suggest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monza
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56%. Napoli’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push towards a higher total, with Monza’s defensive record also contributing to that outlook.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monza
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.1 corners. Recent Napoli matches have featured high counts, including 13 against Roma and 12 against Venezia.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monza
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Napoli’s 3-3 draw with Roma featured 39 shots between the teams, supporting the expectation of plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Monza wins by X goals. Negative = Napoli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Monza vs Napoli with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Monza vs Napoli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Napoli’s favour. That modest gap fits a forecast that gives Napoli the largest single chance of winning, but still leaves Monza and the draw with meaningful probabilities.

Final Prediction

Monza’s home scoring could be the factor that changes the picture. If they turn their chances into goals as they did against Cagliari, Napoli’s advantage in creating opportunities may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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