Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Parma Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
78%
VS

Parma

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 19 14 1 4 42 17 25 43
2 Milan 19 11 7 1 30 15 15 40
3 Napoli 19 12 3 4 30 17 13 39
4 Juventus 20 11 6 3 32 16 16 39
5 Roma 20 13 0 7 24 12 12 39
6 Como 19 9 7 3 27 13 14 34
7 Atalanta 20 8 7 5 25 19 6 31
8 Lazio 20 7 7 6 21 16 5 28
9 Bologna 19 7 6 6 26 20 6 27
10 Udinese 20 7 5 8 22 32 -10 26
11 Sassuolo 20 6 5 9 23 27 -4 23
12 Torino 20 6 5 9 21 32 -11 23
13 Cremonese 20 5 7 8 20 28 -8 22
14 Parma 19 5 6 8 14 22 -8 21
15 Genoa 20 4 7 9 22 29 -7 19
16 Cagliari 20 4 7 9 21 30 -9 19
17 Lecce 19 4 5 10 13 27 -14 17
18 Fiorentina 20 2 8 10 21 31 -10 14
19 Verona 19 2 7 10 15 31 -16 13
20 Pisa 20 1 10 9 15 30 -15 13

Recent Trends

Napoli ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)

Parma ✅ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

As Napoli prepares to face Parma, the hosts are strongly favored to emerge victorious with a commanding 78.0% probability of winning the match. In contrast, Parma's chances of an upset stand at just 10.0%, while the probability of a draw is 12.0%. With Napoli sitting comfortably in 3rd place in Serie A and Parma in 14th, the odds are certainly stacked in favor of the home side. The game is also predicted to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 43.0% probability, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair.

Match Analysis

Napoli comes into this game with a solid recent run of performances, having drawn twice against tough opponents like Inter and Verona, and securing a win against Lazio. They have been consistent with their goal-scoring form, netting an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches. Defensively, they have been resilient, conceding an average of 1.0 goals and keeping two clean sheets during this period. Their expected goals metrics also suggest they are creating decent chances, averaging 1.54 expected goals per game. On the other hand, Parma has had a mixed bag of results in their recent outings. They managed a victory over Lecce, but suffered a defeat against Inter and drew with Sassuolo. Parma's goal-scoring average stands at 1.4 over the last five games, while defensively they have matched Napoli with an average of 1.0 goals conceded per game. Parma’s expected goals figures demonstrate they are slightly underperforming in front of goal, with an average of 1.37 expected goals.

Final Prediction

Napoli's current standing and recent form give them a significant edge in this matchup. Their superior attacking capabilities and defensive solidity are likely to be pivotal against Parma. A key factor to watch will be Napoli's ability to convert chances against a Parma side that has struggled to keep goals at bay. Fans should look out for Napoli's attacking duo to potentially exploit Parma's defensive vulnerabilities.