Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Sassuolo Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
91%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
4%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 20 15 1 4 43 17 26 46
2 Milan 20 12 7 1 33 16 17 43
3 Napoli 20 12 4 4 30 17 13 40
4 Juventus 20 11 6 3 32 16 16 39
5 Roma 20 13 0 7 24 12 12 39
6 Como 20 9 7 4 28 16 12 34
7 Atalanta 20 8 7 5 25 19 6 31
8 Bologna 20 8 6 6 29 22 7 30
9 Lazio 20 7 7 6 21 16 5 28
10 Udinese 20 7 5 8 22 32 -10 26
11 Sassuolo 20 6 5 9 23 27 -4 23
12 Torino 20 6 5 9 21 32 -11 23
13 Cremonese 20 5 7 8 20 28 -8 22
14 Parma 20 5 7 8 14 22 -8 22
15 Genoa 20 4 7 9 22 29 -7 19
16 Cagliari 20 4 7 9 21 30 -9 19
17 Lecce 20 4 5 11 13 28 -15 17
18 Fiorentina 20 2 8 10 21 31 -10 14
19 Pisa 20 1 10 9 15 30 -15 13
20 Verona 20 2 7 11 17 34 -17 13

Recent Trends

Napoli ⚪ ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)

Sassuolo ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.75
# Clean Sheets: 3

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli is heavily favored to win their upcoming match against Sassuolo with a 91.0% probability of securing the victory. The game is anticipated to have fewer than 2.5 goals scored, aligning with the prediction that it will be a low-scoring affair. In the Serie A standings, Napoli holds a strong position in third place, while Sassuolo is in the 11th spot, suggesting a significant gap in form and performance between the two teams.

Match Analysis

Napoli's recent form has seen them draw their last three games, including a challenging encounter against league leaders Inter, which ended in a 2-2 stalemate. Despite these draws, Napoli has been defensively sound, as evidenced by their three clean sheets in the last five matches. Their average goals scored in the same period is 1.4, supported by an expected goals rate of 1.566, indicating their potential to create scoring opportunities. Sassuolo, on the other hand, has struggled in their recent outings, managing only one draw against Parma and suffering losses to both Roma and Juventus. Their average goals scored over the last five games is slightly lower at 1.2, with an expected goals tally of 1.348. Defensively, Sassuolo has been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game, and they have not managed a clean sheet in their last five appearances. This defensive frailty could be a critical factor in their matchup against Napoli.

Final Prediction

Given Napoli's superior standing and recent defensive resilience, they have a clear edge over Sassuolo heading into this fixture. Sassuolo's defensive vulnerabilities and lack of recent success suggest they might struggle to pose a significant threat. A key factor to watch during the game will be Napoli's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could make the difference in securing the anticipated win.