Serie A 2026-2027: Sassuolo vs Lazio Prediction - 27 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sassuolo

Home Team
26%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
51%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Lazio

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Sassuolo
Attack +9.2 Lazio
Chance creation (xG data) +8.0 Lazio
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.7 Lazio
Defense +3.2 Lazio

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Lazio. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Sassuolo defense +2.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Lazio attack & chance creation +1.9 Over
Sassuolo attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Form & results +1.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Sassuolo L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)

Lazio W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 0

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are the likelier winners at 51%, with Sassuolo at 26% and a draw at 23%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 57% probability.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo’s home advantage is the main counterweight, but Lazio’s stronger attack and chance creation carry more weight in the forecast. Lazio have scored 16 goals in eight league games, compared with Sassuolo’s 12, and average 2.0 goals away from home. Sassuolo also average 2.0 at home, giving them a threat of their own, but they have conceded 16 goals to Lazio’s five. Sassuolo have lost their last two, most recently 0-2 away to Como after a 2-4 defeat at Frosinone. Lazio arrive in better form, with three straight wins: their latest was a 2-1 home victory over Parma, following a 3-0 win away to Juventus. Sassuolo have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, a concern against visitors who have scored in each of those three wins.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 57%. Sassuolo’s 16 goals conceded in eight league matches make their defence the clearest reason for the higher-scoring lean.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.3 corners. Recent match totals include 10 in Sassuolo’s game against Como and 11 in Lazio’s meeting with Parma.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 26 shots. Recent totals include 35 in Sassuolo’s match against Frosinone and 31 in Lazio’s match against Parma.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sassuolo wins by X goals. Negative = Lazio wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sassuolo vs Lazio with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sassuolo vs Lazio
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Lazio’s favour, consistent with their stronger win probability.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s home scoring is their clearest route to changing the forecast. Lazio have still allowed chances away from home, with an average of 1.3 expected goals conceded there, so the hosts will need to make their opportunities count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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