NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Charlotte Hornets
Home Team
72.5%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
27.5%
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are projected to win this game with a 72.5% probability. Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté; New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 229.88 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo feel from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.68, which gives a 4.68-point advantage to the home team; despite that edge, the forecast still favors Charlotte to come away with the win.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.9
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - New Orleans Pelicans)
4.7
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Charlotte arrives on a three-game winning streak: a 111-106 win over the Spurs, 123-121 over the Mavericks, and 112-97 over the Grizzlies. That recent run shows they can close tight games and also put up a comfortable margin. New Orleans is 1-2 in its last three, beating Memphis 114-106 but losing 114-124 to Philadelphia and 95-104 to Oklahoma City, a mix of solid offense and some defensive lapses.
Looking at the expected starting units, Charlotte’s five average an offensive rating of 121.62 and a defensive rating of 115.64, with an average of 17.098 points made per starter. New Orleans’ projected five average an offensive rating of 115.08 and a defensive rating of 118.86, with 16.221 average points made per starter. Those numbers point to Charlotte having the offensive edge and a modest defensive advantage, which helps explain the prediction.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s current form and stronger offensive numbers give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether New Orleans can tighten its defense enough to contain LaMelo, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel and the Hornets’ balanced attack.
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