NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
56.4%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
43.6%
Key Prediction Insights
The San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win with a 56.4% probability. Expected starting fives: Spurs — De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Thunder — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 222.64 points, which suggests a fairly high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 1.9, giving a small 1.9-point edge to the home team — aligning with the Spurs narrowly favored outcome.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.6
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Oklahoma City Thunder)
1.9
Most likely outcome: 1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
San Antonio comes in 2-1 over their last three: wins 112-103 over Orlando and 111-99 over Houston, with a close 106-111 loss to Charlotte. Those results show they can score in the 110s and defend well at times, particularly holding Houston to 99. Oklahoma City is also 2-1: a dominant 128-92 win over Orlando, 121-111 over Denver, and a 111-123 loss to Minnesota. The Thunder have shown they can explode offensively, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Looking at the starting fives, the Spurs’ five average offensive rating is 114.34, defensive rating 110.50, and average points made per starter 17.33. The Thunder’s starters average offensive rating 120.34, defensive rating 106.64, and average points made per starter 15.41. OKC’s higher offensive rating — led by Shai — is offset somewhat by San Antonio’s stronger individual scoring from Wembanyama and balanced defense across the Spurs’ lineup.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ slight edge comes from a balanced starting five with strong scoring from Victor Wembanyama and steady recent form. Key factor to watch: how San Antonio defends Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — that matchup will likely decide which team controls the tempo.
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