NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
51.5%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
48.5%
Key Prediction Insights
I project the Toronto Raptors to win this one with a 51.5% probability. Expected starting fives: Toronto — Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. New York — Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The models expect 223.2 combined points, pointing to a relatively high-scoring affair and a decent offensive pace. The spread is Home - Away = -1.36, which means the away team is favored by about 1.36 points. Note: two separate models are shown here — one gives the winner probability (Raptors 51.5%) and a different model produces the point-spread estimate; both are presented for transparency, which is why they can point different ways.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
223.2
Most likely outcome: 223 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - New York Knicks)
-1.4
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Toronto is 1-2 over its last three: a 134-125 win over Washington, and close losses 107-110 to San Antonio and 107-116 to Oklahoma City. That win shows they can score in bunches, but the two losses suggest some inconsistency on defense and in closing possessions. New York is 2-1 in its last three with decisive wins 114-89 (Spurs) and 127-98 (Bucks) and a 94-109 loss to Cleveland — they’ve shown the ability to blow teams out but also have an off night in that loss.
Looking at starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 116.94, defensive rating of 112.24, and average points made about 17.23 per player. New York’s starters average offensive rating 120.34, defensive rating 112.42, and about 18.02 points made per player. New York’s starters bring a higher offensive profile, while Toronto’s group is marginally better on defense by these numbers. Jakob Poeltl’s 125.5 offensive rating and Karl-Anthony Towns’ 119.2 mark will be pivotal inside.
Final Prediction
The probability model gives Toronto a narrow edge (51.5%), largely because of a small defensive advantage among the projected starters and Poeltl’s interior impact. Key factor to watch: how Poeltl-Towns matchups and the teams’ ability to limit the opponent’s leading scorers (Brunson and Toronto’s primary creators) will decide a one-possession game.
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