NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
68.6%
VS
Los Angeles Clippers
Away Team
31.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.4
DR
112.5
PTS
18.8
VS
Kris Dunn
OR
118.7
DR
116.5
PTS
8.0
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
114.8
DR
110.7
PTS
16.4
VS
Kobe Sanders
OR
99.8
DR
118.0
PTS
7.0
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
115.7
DR
113.7
PTS
14.5
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
124.6
DR
118.1
PTS
10.9
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.6
DR
111.3
PTS
11.3
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
123.4
DR
111.8
PTS
27.9
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
117.6
DR
99.6
PTS
23.7
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
94.5
DR
114.9
PTS
7.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (68.6% probability).
Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Kris Dunn, Kobe Sanders, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected total for the game is 224.64 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo game environment. The projected spread is Home - Away: 11.16, which means the home team is given an 11.16-point advantage; given the prediction favoring San Antonio, that margin supports a comfortable Spurs win if they are the home side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.6
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Los Angeles Clippers)
11.2
Most likely outcome: 11 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams have rising momentum in recent power ratings — San Antonio is up +8.3 and Los Angeles is up +13.1 over the last five games.
San Antonio Spurs
1672.8
+8.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1672.8 | +10.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1662.4 | +8.9 |
| 2026-03-01 | New York Knicks | 1653.5 | -14.1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Brooklyn Nets | 1667.6 | +3.1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Toronto Raptors | 1664.5 | — |
Los Angeles Clippers
1538.8
+13.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.8 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1533.8 | +11.2 |
| 2026-03-01 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1522.6 | +7.2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1515.4 | -10.3 |
| 2026-02-22 | Orlando Magic | 1525.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 121 | 106 | +15 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 91 | +40 | |
| New York Knicks | 89 | 114 | -25 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 126 | 110 | +16 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 110 | 107 | +3 |
Los Angeles Clippers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 130 | 107 | +23 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 114 | 101 | +13 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 137 | 117 | +20 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 88 | 94 | -6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 109 | 111 | -2 |
Game Analysis
San Antonio is 2-1 in its last three, with convincing wins over Detroit (121-106) and Philadelphia (131-91) before a 89-114 loss to New York. The Spurs show the ability to score in bunches but also had a defensive lapse against the Knicks. Los Angeles arrives hot at 3-0, beating Indiana 130-107, Golden State 114-101, and New Orleans 137-117, which highlights a potent recent offensive stretch for the Clippers.
Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 116.82, a defensive rating of 109.56, and 16.94 points made per player, while the Clippers’ five average an offensive rating of 112.20, a defensive rating of 115.86, and 12.24 points made per player. The Spurs’ starters combine better two-way balance and scoring depth, whereas the Clippers lean heavily on Kawhi Leonard for offense and have higher defensive ratings to manage.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ stronger overall balance on both ends and higher projected production from their starting five give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how Victor Wembanyama’s defensive presence and San Antonio’s rotation contain Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers’ recent offensive heat.
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