NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
85.5%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
14.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Josh Hart
OR
119.6
DR
110.1
PTS
11.7
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
112.7
DR
122.2
PTS
17.0
SG
Landry Shamet
OR
126.9
DR
114.3
PTS
9.9
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
105.0
DR
120.0
PTS
13.5
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.8
DR
112.9
PTS
14.8
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
101.4
DR
117.9
PTS
11.3
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
116.4
DR
111.9
PTS
16.7
VS
Obi Toppin
OR
100.3
DR
120.2
PTS
8.4
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
121.5
DR
109.5
PTS
20.0
VS
Ivica Zubac
OR
118.3
DR
122.7
PTS
9.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The New York Knicks are projected to win (85.5% probability). Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Josh Hart, Landry Shamet, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Ivica Zubac.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of 223.94 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly lively pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.39, giving a double-digit advantage to the home side and a sizable cushion for whoever draws the home role.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.9 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Indiana Pacers) 12.4 Most likely outcome: 12 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Knicks' power rating has inched up (+1.6 over five games) while the Pacers have fallen substantially (-23.5 over five games).

New York Knicks

1606.8 +1.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-15 Golden State Warriors 1606.8 +5.4
2026-03-13 Indiana Pacers 1601.4 +3.3
2026-03-11 Utah Jazz 1598.1 +4.6
2026-03-09 Los Angeles Clippers 1593.5 -11.7
2026-03-08 Los Angeles Lakers 1605.2 —

Indiana Pacers

1298.7 -23.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-15 Milwaukee Bucks 1298.7 -6.4
2026-03-13 New York Knicks 1305.1 -3.3
2026-03-12 Phoenix Suns 1308.4 -4.3
2026-03-10 Sacramento Kings 1312.7 -9.5
2026-03-08 Portland Trail Blazers 1322.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 110 107 +3
Indiana Pacers 101 92 +9
Utah Jazz 134 117 +17
Los Angeles Clippers 118 126 -8
Los Angeles Lakers 97 110 -13

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 123 134 -11
New York Knicks 92 101 -9
Phoenix Suns 108 123 -15
Sacramento Kings 109 114 -5
Portland Trail Blazers 111 131 -20

Game Analysis

New York arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins over Golden State 110-107, Indiana 101-92, and Utah 134-117), showing consistent scoring and recent success against this opponent. Indiana is on a three-game slide (losses to Milwaukee 123-134, New York 92-101, Phoenix 108-123), struggling to stop opponents and find offensive rhythm. Looking at the expected starters, New York’s five average offensive rating is 121.84 and defensive rating 111.74, with an average of 14.62 points made per starter; that balance favors efficient scoring and solid defense. Indiana’s projected starters average a 107.54 offensive rating and a 120.60 defensive rating, with 11.98 points made per starter, indicating offensive limitations and defensive struggles that likely swing the matchup.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ combination of higher offensive efficiency and stronger team defense gives them a clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is whether Indiana can improve offensive execution vs. the Knicks’ tougher defensive unit; if not, the double-digit spread looks likely to hold.

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