NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
80.8%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
19.2%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
118.5
DR
117.3
PTS
12.1
VS
Isaiah Collier
OR
112.9
DR
124.3
PTS
11.6
SG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
116.8
DR
114.6
PTS
12.3
VS
Cody Williams
OR
98.4
DR
124.3
PTS
7.0
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.6
DR
115.4
PTS
14.5
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
106.2
DR
122.9
PTS
12.4
PF
Julius Randle
OR
117.9
DR
114.7
PTS
21.2
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.7
DR
124.4
PTS
13.5
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
132.1
DR
110.7
PTS
10.8
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.5
DR
118.4
PTS
10.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Minnesota Timberwolves are predicted to win (80.8% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined 233.13 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair with an uptempo look. The expected spread is Home - Away = 9.46, which implies a clear advantage (about 9.5 points) to whichever team is at home.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.1 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Utah Jazz) 9.5 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Minnesota’s rating has been essentially stable over the last five games while Utah’s has been on a noticeable decline.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1567.3 -0.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Phoenix Suns 1567.3 +9.2
2026-03-15 Oklahoma City Thunder 1558.1 -6.5
2026-03-13 Golden State Warriors 1564.6 +8.8
2026-03-11 Los Angeles Clippers 1555.8 -11.7
2026-03-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1567.5 —

Utah Jazz

1334.5 -7.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-15 Sacramento Kings 1334.5 -9.7
2026-03-13 Portland Trail Blazers 1344.2 -5.8
2026-03-11 New York Knicks 1350.0 -4.7
2026-03-09 Golden State Warriors 1354.7 +13.1
2026-03-07 Milwaukee Bucks 1341.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-3 in last 5
W L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 116 104 +12
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 116 -13
Golden State Warriors 127 117 +10
Los Angeles Clippers 128 153 -25
Los Angeles Lakers 106 120 -14

Utah Jazz

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 111 116 -5
Portland Trail Blazers 114 124 -10
New York Knicks 117 134 -17
Golden State Warriors 119 116 +3
Milwaukee Bucks 99 113 -14

Game Analysis

Minnesota arrives 2-1 over the last three games with solid wins over Phoenix (116-104) and Golden State (127-117) and a hiccup at Oklahoma City (103-116). That pattern shows they can score against good opponents and bounce back after a loss. Utah is on a three-game skid, dropping to Sacramento (111-116), Portland (114-124), and New York (117-134), which points to struggles on both ends and a defense yielding large totals late. Looking at the projected starters, Minnesota’s group averages an offensive rating of about 120.0, defensive rating near 114.5, and average points made ≈14.2 per starter. Utah’s projected five average an offensive rating around 107.7, defensive rating about 122.9, and average points made 11.0 per starter. Those gaps — especially Minnesota’s offensive edge and cleaner defense — line up with the sizable probability and spread in favor of Minnesota.

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s superior offensive and defensive profile among the expected starters gives them the clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how Utah defends around the rim against Rudy Gobert, since that matchup will likely determine whether Utah can keep the game within reach.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel