NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Detroit Pistons

Home Team
72.5%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
27.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Daniss Jenkins
OR
102.3
DR
111.5
PTS
8.5
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
114.6
DR
114.9
PTS
17.6
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
112.3
DR
105.3
PTS
10.0
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
104.3
DR
116.7
PTS
9.1
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.1
DR
115.4
PTS
11.9
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.3
DR
120.7
PTS
17.4
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
117.6
DR
111.8
PTS
13.3
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.7
DR
119.0
PTS
21.7
C
Jalen Duren
OR
131.9
DR
108.3
PTS
19.3
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
126.0
DR
118.2
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (72.5% probability). Expected starting five — Detroit: Daniss Jenkins, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Expected starting five — New Orleans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.34 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and an above-average pace. The expected spread (home − away) is 7.91 in favor of the home team, giving Detroit a sizable edge on their side of the spread.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.3 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - New Orleans Pelicans) 7.9 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ Elo ratings are rising over the last five games: Detroit up +4.6 and New Orleans up +14.1.

Detroit Pistons

1633.7 +4.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Atlanta Hawks 1633.7 -12.3
2026-03-23 Los Angeles Lakers 1646.0 +8.7
2026-03-20 Golden State Warriors 1637.3 +5.0
2026-03-19 Washington Wizards 1632.3 +3.2
2026-03-17 Washington Wizards 1629.1 —

New Orleans Pelicans

1449.3 +14.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-24 New York Knicks 1449.3 -5.1
2026-03-21 Cleveland Cavaliers 1454.4 -6.5
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Clippers 1460.9 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Clippers 1449.1 +13.9
2026-03-16 Dallas Mavericks 1435.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Detroit Pistons

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 129 130 -1
Los Angeles Lakers 113 110 +3
Golden State Warriors 115 101 +14
Washington Wizards 117 95 +22
Washington Wizards 130 117 +13

New Orleans Pelicans

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 116 121 -5
Cleveland Cavaliers 106 111 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 105 99 +6
Los Angeles Clippers 124 109 +15
Dallas Mavericks 129 111 +18

Game Analysis

Detroit comes in 2-1 over the last three (wins over the Lakers and Warriors, a one-point loss to Atlanta), showing they can close tight games and defend when it matters. New Orleans is 1-2 (losses to the Knicks and Cavaliers, a win over the Clippers), a stretch that suggests inconsistency on both ends. Recent results favor Detroit’s momentum and defensive execution in their two wins. Looking at the five starters, Detroit’s group averages an offensive rating of 117.84 and a defensive rating of 110.46 with an average of 12.60 points made per starter; Jalen Duren (OFF 131.9, 19.3 PTS) is a major interior factor. New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 117.58 and a defensive rating of 117.90 with 17.44 points made per starter, showing more individual scoring but weaker team defense. That contrast—similar offense, Detroit’s superior defense—will be decisive.

Final Prediction

Detroit’s edge comes from better recent form and a clear defensive advantage (110.46 vs 117.90 defensive rating for starters). Watch how Detroit contains New Orleans’ higher-scoring starters, especially how they defend around the rim and limit efficient looks for Zion and Murray.

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