NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Team
74.4%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
25.6%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
136.0
DR
108.1
PTS
31.4
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.2
DR
116.6
PTS
26.2
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
114.9
DR
110.6
PTS
17.2
VS
Josh Hart
OR
121.3
DR
110.5
PTS
12.2
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
102.8
DR
111.5
PTS
8.4
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.8
DR
113.4
PTS
14.7
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.6
DR
104.0
PTS
17.1
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
116.8
DR
112.3
PTS
16.8
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
121.9
DR
103.3
PTS
9.5
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.0
DR
109.7
PTS
20.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win (74.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 225.52, pointing to a moderately high-scoring affair and an uptempo game environment. The expected spread (home − away) is 6.85, meaning the home side is pegged to have roughly a seven-point edge; the overall projection still favors Oklahoma City.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.5
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - New York Knicks)
6.8
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Oklahoma City’s power rating has been a bit volatile and slightly down over five games, while New York’s rating has been essentially flat.
Oklahoma City Thunder
1694.3
-1.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Chicago Bulls | 1694.3 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Boston Celtics | 1691.4 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1703.6 | +6.2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Washington Wizards | 1697.4 | +2.1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Brooklyn Nets | 1695.3 | — |
New York Knicks
1609.3
-0.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Charlotte Hornets | 1609.3 | -11.2 |
| 2026-03-24 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1620.5 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Washington Wizards | 1615.5 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-20 | Brooklyn Nets | 1612.6 | +3.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Indiana Pacers | 1609.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 131 | 113 | +18 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 123 | 103 | +20 | |
| Washington Wizards | 132 | 111 | +21 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 121 | 92 | +29 |
New York Knicks
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 103 | 114 | -11 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 121 | 116 | +5 | |
| Washington Wizards | 145 | 113 | +32 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 93 | 92 | +1 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 136 | 110 | +26 |
Game Analysis
OKC enters 2-1 in its last three with comfortable wins over Chicago (131-113) and Philadelphia (123-103) and a loss to Boston (109-119), showing they can both score in bunches and defend on stretches. The Knicks are also 2-1, beating New Orleans (121-116) and Washington (145-113) but falling to Charlotte (103-114), suggesting offensive upside but some lapses consistency-wise.
Looking at the starters, Oklahoma City’s combined offensive rating averages to about 120.04 and defensive rating about 107.5, with a combined 83.6 points from the five starters (16.7 per starter). New York’s starters average roughly a 121.22 offensive rating and a 112.5 defensive rating, supplying 90.0 combined points (18.0 per starter). That paints OKC as the stronger defensive unit while New York brings a slight edge on pure scoring from its starters; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s elite offense and OKC’s team defense are key contrasts.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s defensive balance and the scoring punch from Shai give them the edge in this projection. Watch how well New York’s starters convert their slightly higher scoring upside against OKC’s tighter defensive numbers — that matchup will decide the game.
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