NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Team
80.0%
VS
Los Angeles Lakers
Away Team
20.0%
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HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
29.8
REB
4.5
AST
6.6
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Williams
PTS
18.0
REB
4.0
AST
5.7
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
8.7
REB
3.2
AST
1.6
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
16.0
REB
7.9
AST
2.1
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
9.7
REB
9.8
AST
3.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Dončić
PTS
32.8
REB
6.5
AST
7.0
3PM
3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Austin Reaves
PTS
23.0
REB
4.5
AST
5.3
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
LeBron James
PTS
19.7
REB
6.3
AST
6.6
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jake LaRavia
PTS
6.8
REB
4.2
AST
1.4
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Deandre Ayton
PTS
10.6
REB
8.0
AST
0.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.9
DR
108.2
PTS
31.6
VS
Luka Dončić
OR
120.7
DR
113.1
PTS
33.8
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
115.9
DR
110.8
PTS
17.3
VS
Austin Reaves
OR
122.3
DR
117.1
PTS
23.4
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
103.3
DR
111.5
PTS
8.3
VS
LeBron James
OR
118.4
DR
116.4
PTS
20.7
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.4
DR
104.0
PTS
17.0
VS
Jake LaRavia
OR
115.5
DR
115.9
PTS
8.3
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
121.6
DR
103.2
PTS
9.4
VS
Deandre Ayton
OR
126.0
DR
114.5
PTS
12.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (80.0% probability).
Expected starters — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jake LaRavia, Deandre Ayton.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 229.06 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a solid pace on both ends. The expected spread is 9.23 (Home - Away), which implies the home team is projected to have a 9.23-point edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.1
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Los Angeles Lakers)
9.2
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are trending upward, with the Lakers showing a larger recent rise than the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder
1709.9
+6.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Detroit Pistons | 1709.9 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | New York Knicks | 1701.8 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Chicago Bulls | 1694.3 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Boston Celtics | 1691.4 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1703.6 | — |
Los Angeles Lakers
1625.4
+18.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1625.4 | +10.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Washington Wizards | 1615.4 | +2.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Brooklyn Nets | 1612.9 | +2.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Indiana Pacers | 1610.3 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-23 | Detroit Pistons | 1607.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 114 | 110 | +4 | |
| New York Knicks | 111 | 100 | +11 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 131 | 113 | +18 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 123 | 103 | +20 |
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 127 | 113 | +14 | |
| Washington Wizards | 120 | 101 | +19 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 116 | 99 | +17 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 137 | 130 | +7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 110 | 113 | -3 |
Game Analysis
Both squads enter on three-game win streaks. Oklahoma City has beaten Detroit 114-110, New York 111-100 and Chicago 131-113, averaging a +11 margin over those games. Los Angeles has wins of 127-113, 120-101 and 116-99, posting even bigger margins and a more dominant scoring edge over opponents in that stretch.
Looking at the expected starting units, Oklahoma City's five average an offensive rating of 120.22 and a defensive rating of 107.54, with starters combining for 83.6 points (16.72 per starter). The Lakers’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 120.58 and a defensive rating of 115.40, with starters totaling 98.6 points (19.72 per starter). That near-parity offensively but clear defensive advantage for OKC (107.54 vs 115.40) explains why the Thunder are favored: they can limit scoring even if the Lakers’ starters produce more points individually.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s edge comes down to a stronger defensive profile across their projected starters and the two-way impact of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Key factor to watch: whether the Lakers’ higher-scoring starters, led by Luka Dončić and Deandre Ayton, can overcome Oklahoma City’s defensive ratings.
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