NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
66.1%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
33.9%
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HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.8
REB
5.3
AST
7.1
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
25.1
REB
4.4
AST
5.1
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dean Wade
PTS
6.2
REB
3.9
AST
1.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
16.5
REB
8.0
AST
4.2
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
14.1
REB
8.2
AST
2.4
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
25.7
REB
4.9
AST
7.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
8.6
REB
6.2
AST
3.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.0
REB
2.9
AST
1.7
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
16.9
REB
5.8
AST
1.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
15.3
REB
9.9
AST
1.7
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
119.5
DR
116.6
PTS
20.3
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.4
DR
110.1
PTS
24.7
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.4
DR
115.6
PTS
27.4
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.9
DR
104.4
PTS
9.8
SF
Dean Wade
OR
130.2
DR
114.8
PTS
5.8
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.1
DR
114.5
PTS
12.2
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.1
DR
112.4
PTS
18.0
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
119.3
DR
109.9
PTS
14.3
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.3
DR
111.3
PTS
14.8
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
130.2
DR
107.9
PTS
18.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are predicted to win (66.1% probability).
Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 218.59 points, pointing to a moderately fast game with scoring opportunities on both ends. The expected spread is Home - Away = 3.09, giving the home team a 3.09-point edge heading into the matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
218.6
Most likely outcome: 218 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Detroit Pistons)
3.1
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s rating has been drifting down while Detroit’s rating is on a steady rise.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1584.9
-18.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Detroit Pistons | 1584.9 | -7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1592.6 | -8.2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1600.8 | +8.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | Toronto Raptors | 1592.2 | -10.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | Toronto Raptors | 1603.0 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1675.7
+32.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1675.7 | +7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1668.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Orlando Magic | 1659.9 | +7.8 |
| 2026-05-01 | Orlando Magic | 1652.1 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Orlando Magic | 1642.9 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 97 | 107 | -10 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 101 | 111 | -10 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 114 | 102 | +12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 110 | 112 | -2 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 125 | 120 | +5 |
Detroit Pistons
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 107 | 97 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 111 | 101 | +10 | |
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 94 | +22 | |
| Orlando Magic | 93 | 79 | +14 | |
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 109 | +7 |
Game Analysis
Recent form tilts toward Detroit: the Pistons have won three straight (including two recent wins over Cleveland, 111-101 and 107-97) and a 116-94 win over Orlando. Cleveland is 1-2 in its last three, dropping those two games to Detroit before beating Toronto 114-102, so momentum favors the Pistons right now.
Looking at the expected starting units, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.50, a defensive rating of 114.14, and average points made of 17.26 per starter, showing a strong offensive ceiling led by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Detroit’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 121.98, a defensive rating of 109.36, and 15.90 points made per starter, indicating a stingier defense and balanced scoring through Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.
Final Prediction
Cleveland gets the nod because its starting five carries a higher combined offensive profile and scoring punch, which should overcome Detroit’s recent momentum. Key factor to watch: how Cleveland defends Jalen Duren and whether Cleveland’s offense can overcome Detroit’s improving defense.
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