NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
71.3%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
28.7%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME San Antonio Spurs
De'Aaron Fox
PTS
19.6
REB
3.6
AST
5.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
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Stephon Castle
PTS
18.5
REB
5.2
AST
6.7
3PM
1.4
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Devin Vassell
PTS
13.7
REB
4.0
AST
2.9
3PM
2.2
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Julian Champagnie
PTS
10.9
REB
5.5
AST
1.9
3PM
2.4
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Victor Wembanyama
PTS
22.6
REB
11.5
AST
2.9
3PM
1.6
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards
PTS
25.9
REB
5.4
AST
4.1
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
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Ayo Dosunmu
PTS
13.8
REB
4.0
AST
3.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jaden McDaniels
PTS
16.7
REB
5.2
AST
2.7
3PM
1.2
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Julius Randle
PTS
20.8
REB
6.7
AST
4.2
3PM
1.5
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Rudy Gobert
PTS
10.8
REB
10.7
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.4
DR
112.5
PTS
18.6
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
115.6
DR
114.9
PTS
28.0
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.0
DR
111.2
PTS
16.9
VS
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
117.6
DR
113.6
PTS
14.8
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.5
DR
112.8
PTS
13.8
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
113.9
DR
115.0
PTS
15.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.9
DR
110.9
PTS
11.0
VS
Julius Randle
OR
114.7
DR
113.7
PTS
20.7
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.5
DR
98.8
PTS
24.4
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.0
DR
109.2
PTS
10.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are favored to win (71.3% probability).
Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 221.0 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo game plan on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 10.67, which gives a sizable advantage to the home team (Spurs) — roughly an 11-point edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
221.0
Most likely outcome: 221 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Minnesota Timberwolves)
10.7
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s power rating has dipped slightly over the last five games (net -9.6), while Minnesota’s has climbed modestly (net +9.6).
San Antonio Spurs
1711.1
-9.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1711.1 | -12.6 |
| 2026-05-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1723.7 | +7.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1716.5 | +8.5 |
| 2026-05-04 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1708.0 | -12.7 |
| 2026-04-28 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1720.7 | — |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1600.9
+9.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | San Antonio Spurs | 1600.9 | +12.6 |
| 2026-05-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 1588.3 | -7.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | San Antonio Spurs | 1595.5 | -8.6 |
| 2026-05-04 | San Antonio Spurs | 1604.1 | +12.8 |
| 2026-04-30 | Denver Nuggets | 1591.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 109 | 114 | -5 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 115 | 108 | +7 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 133 | 95 | +38 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 102 | 104 | -2 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 114 | 95 | +19 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 109 | +5 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 108 | 115 | -7 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 95 | 133 | -38 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 104 | 102 | +2 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 110 | 98 | +12 |
Game Analysis
These teams have traded results in their recent three meetings: San Antonio lost the most recent matchup 109-114 but had earlier wins of 115-108 and 133-95. That 133-95 blowout highlights San Antonio’s ability to dominate when Wembanyama and company are locked in, while the 114-109 result shows Minnesota can respond when Edwards and Gobert click. Minnesota enters with a 1-2 split in the last three against the Spurs; San Antonio is 2-1 across the same span.
Looking at the expected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.46, a defensive rating of 109.24, and 16.94 points made per player — anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s 24.4 scoring average and sub-100 defensive number. Minnesota’s projected five average an offensive rating of 118.16, a defensive rating of 113.28, and 17.84 points made per player — led by Anthony Edwards’ 28.0 scoring. The matchup favors San Antonio defensively, while Minnesota packs more individual scoring from Edwards.
Final Prediction
San Antonio gets the nod because of a stronger recent defensive profile and the presence of Wembanyama to tilt possessions. Watch how well the Spurs contain Anthony Edwards and how Rudy Gobert’s pick-and-roll chemistry with Edwards influences paint touches — that will likely decide if the spread holds.
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