NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
46.9%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
53.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 26.2 REB 5.5 AST 4.3 3PM 2.8
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PTS 14.8 REB 4.9 AST 4.0 3PM 1.9
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PTS 16.1 REB 5.4 AST 2.9 3PM 1.5
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PTS 21.2 REB 7.5 AST 4.3 3PM 1.5
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PTS 10.8 REB 10.7 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.3 REB 3.5 AST 5.3 3PM 1.7
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PTS 18.1 REB 5.1 AST 6.4 3PM 1.0
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PTS 13.3 REB 4.0 AST 2.6 3PM 2.2
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PTS 10.2 REB 5.2 AST 1.7 3PM 2.3
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PTS 23.2 REB 11.5 AST 3.0 3PM 1.6
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Anthony Edwards
OR
115.4
DR
115.1
PTS
27.8
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.4
DR
112.3
PTS
18.6
SG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
117.1
DR
113.5
PTS
14.9
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.9
DR
110.9
PTS
16.9
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
113.8
DR
115.1
PTS
15.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.4
DR
112.6
PTS
13.7
PF
Julius Randle
OR
114.6
DR
113.9
PTS
20.6
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.6
DR
110.8
PTS
11.0
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
128.6
DR
109.3
PTS
10.5
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.5
DR
98.7
PTS
24.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the projected winner (53.1% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 224.67 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and an uptempo matchup with both teams capable of putting up points. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -2.76, effectively giving San Antonio about a 2.8-point edge in this game.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.7 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs) -2.8 Most likely outcome: -3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Minnesota’s power rating has dipped recently while San Antonio’s has climbed, with Minnesota down -10.9 over five games and San Antonio up +10.8.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1593.2 -10.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-12 San Antonio Spurs 1593.2 -7.7
2026-05-10 San Antonio Spurs 1600.9 +12.6
2026-05-08 San Antonio Spurs 1588.3 -7.2
2026-05-06 San Antonio Spurs 1595.5 -8.6
2026-05-04 San Antonio Spurs 1604.1 —

San Antonio Spurs

1718.8 +10.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-12 Minnesota Timberwolves 1718.8 +7.7
2026-05-10 Minnesota Timberwolves 1711.1 -12.6
2026-05-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1723.7 +7.2
2026-05-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1716.5 +8.5
2026-05-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1708.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 97 126 -29
San Antonio Spurs 114 109 +5
San Antonio Spurs 108 115 -7
San Antonio Spurs 95 133 -38
San Antonio Spurs 104 102 +2

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 126 97 +29
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 114 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 108 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 133 95 +38
Minnesota Timberwolves 102 104 -2

Game Analysis

The last three meetings show San Antonio with the upper hand (two wins to Minnesota’s one), including a 126-97 blowout and a 115-108 win; Minnesota’s lone win was a 114-109 result sandwiched between two losses. That inconsistency for Minnesota contrasts with San Antonio’s momentum and the Spurs’ recent decisive victory. Looking at the starters, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of 117.90, defensive rating of 113.38, and average 17.78 points made per starter (total 88.9). San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.36, defensive rating of 109.06, and average 16.92 points made per starter (total 84.6). The edge in team defense and a slightly higher collective offensive efficiency for San Antonio among their starters helps explain the projected outcome.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s recent form, better defensive profile among starters, and upward power-rating trend give them a narrow edge. Watch the Wembanyama–Gobert matchup and how each team defends the paint — that battle will likely decide the game.

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