New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-04

New York Knicks

Home Team
63.4%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
36.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New York Knicks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New York Knicks
Recent team form +4.1 New York Knicks
Season record & ratings +2.4 New York Knicks
Home/road record +1.6 New York Knicks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for New York Knicks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 25.3 REB 3.7 AST 5.4 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.0 REB 7.0 AST 4.3 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.0 REB 13.0 AST 4.7 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.1 REB 3.5 AST 1.9 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.3 REB 5.7 AST 3.0 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Chicago Bulls
PTS 5.6 REB 3.3 AST 1.4 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.5 REB 6.4 AST 3.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 4.8 AST 6.6 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.0 REB 4.5 AST 2.2 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.3 REB 3.3 AST 2.3 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
110.1
DR
113.0
PTS
24.6
VS
Nic Claxton
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
SG
Josh Hart
OR
99.9
DR
103.1
PTS
8.6
VS
Caleb Wilson
OR
107.3
DR
119.0
PTS
21.6
SF
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
111.7
DR
104.6
PTS
20.3
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
106.1
DR
123.6
PTS
9.1
PF
Mikal Bridges
OR
86.9
DR
111.1
PTS
6.1
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
97.3
DR
123.9
PTS
13.0
C
OG Anunoby
OR
111.4
DR
110.9
PTS
16.4
VS
Norman Powell
OR
120.0
DR
121.7
PTS
20.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New York is favored at 63%, with home court and better recent form supporting a moderate advantage. The expected starters are Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby for the Knicks, and Nic Claxton, Caleb Wilson, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis and Norman Powell for Chicago.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is about 230 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game. New York is forecast to win by roughly three, so the numbers suggest a close finish rather than a comfortable margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.5 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Chicago Bulls) 3.2 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New York’s rating has risen over its last five games, while Chicago’s has fallen, leaving the teams’ momentum moving in opposite directions.

New York Knicks

1492.3 +24.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Brooklyn Nets 1492.3 +9.4
2026-10-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1482.9 -8.4
2026-10-28 Chicago Bulls 1491.3 +10.6
2026-10-27 Detroit Pistons 1480.7 +12.4
2026-10-25 Orlando Magic 1468.3 -

Chicago Bulls

1448.9 -38.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Philadelphia 76ers 1448.9 -7.8
2026-10-30 Boston Celtics 1456.7 -8.6
2026-10-28 New York Knicks 1465.3 -10.5
2026-10-26 Boston Celtics 1475.8 -11.7
2026-10-24 Washington Wizards 1487.5 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 103 90 +13
Philadelphia 76ers 93 98 -5
Chicago Bulls 133 127 +6
Detroit Pistons 111 97 +14
Orlando Magic 102 111 -9

Chicago Bulls

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 107 126 -19
Boston Celtics 111 125 -14
New York Knicks 127 133 -6
Boston Celtics 99 134 -35
Washington Wizards 120 124 -4

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest advantage for New York, and its recent results offer another reason for confidence: the Knicks have won two of their last three, including a meeting with Chicago. The Bulls have lost three straight, and their rating trend has continued downward. Jalen Brunson is the strongest scoring option among the expected starters, averaging 25 points, while Norman Powell gives Chicago a reliable scoring threat at 20 per game. The Knicks’ ability to limit Powell and keep Chicago from repeating the 127 points it scored in the teams’ recent meeting could help turn the home-court advantage into a win.

Final Prediction

Chicago’s scoring in that previous meeting shows how it can disrupt the forecast. If the Bulls again put up points at that level, the projected narrow Knicks margin could disappear.

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