Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-07

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
69.5%
VS

New York Knicks

Away Team
30.5%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Cleveland Cavaliers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +10.4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home-court advantage +7.6 Cleveland Cavaliers
Season record & ratings +1.6 Cleveland Cavaliers
Rest & schedule +1.1 New York Knicks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Cleveland Cavaliers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 19.5 REB 4.7 AST 5.0 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.8 REB 6.6 AST 3.0 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.2 REB 4.8 AST 4.7 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.4 REB 6.8 AST 1.4 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.4 REB 4.5 AST 2.4 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New York Knicks
PTS 24.9 REB 3.5 AST 4.3 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.3 REB 12.2 AST 3.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.2 REB 2.9 AST 1.8 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.1 REB 3.0 AST 1.5 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.3 AST 2.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
118.3
DR
113.0
PTS
22.6
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
119.5
DR
113.5
PTS
25.6
SG
Evan Mobley
OR
134.3
DR
112.9
PTS
19.1
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
120.5
DR
103.8
PTS
19.9
SF
James Harden
OR
112.3
DR
113.7
PTS
16.7
VS
Landry Shamet
OR
110.2
DR
115.1
PTS
9.4
PF
Jarrett Allen
OR
118.6
DR
112.1
PTS
13.2
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
91.5
DR
110.5
PTS
6.2
C
Peyton Watson
OR
97.1
DR
110.0
PTS
11.1
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
114.5
DR
109.2
PTS
16.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland is favored at 70%, a solid advantage but not a runaway. Its expected starters are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson, while New York is expected to start Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Landry Shamet, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 222 points, with Cleveland ahead by about four. That points to a competitive game and a moderate scoring total rather than a shootout.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 222.1 Most likely outcome: 222 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - New York Knicks) 4.4 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with New York’s momentum notably stronger.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1514.7 +4.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1514.7 +13.5
2026-11-04 Oklahoma City Thunder 1501.2 -9.5
2026-11-02 Oklahoma City Thunder 1510.7 -10.7
2026-10-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1521.4 +11.5
2026-10-29 Atlanta Hawks 1509.9 -

New York Knicks

1502.5 +21.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Chicago Bulls 1502.5 +10.2
2026-11-02 Brooklyn Nets 1492.3 +9.4
2026-10-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1482.9 -8.4
2026-10-28 Chicago Bulls 1491.3 +10.6
2026-10-27 Detroit Pistons 1480.7 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 119 95 +24
Oklahoma City Thunder 116 124 -8
Oklahoma City Thunder 112 117 -5
Milwaukee Bucks 136 111 +25
Atlanta Hawks 111 114 -3

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 135 105 +30
Brooklyn Nets 103 90 +13
Philadelphia 76ers 93 98 -5
Chicago Bulls 133 127 +6
Detroit Pistons 111 97 +14

Game Analysis

Cleveland’s expected starting group offers scoring from more places across the five. Brunson is New York’s clearest individual scoring threat, and the Knicks will need his creation to keep the Cavaliers from controlling the matchup. Home court further supports Cleveland, while New York arrives on a two-game winning streak that includes a 30-point win over Chicago. The Knicks’ sharper rating rise and slight rest-and-schedule advantage give them reasons to make this closer than the starting-lineup comparison suggests.

Final Prediction

Brunson’s ability to lead New York’s scoring against Cleveland’s balanced starting group is the clearest route to an upset.

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