Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-07

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
29.0%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
71.0%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +26.2 San Antonio Spurs
Home-court advantage +7.6 Portland Trail Blazers
Recent team form +3.1 San Antonio Spurs
Season record & ratings +1.6 San Antonio Spurs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 11.2 REB 10.5 AST 1.4 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.4 REB 4.1 AST 3.5 3PM 2.6
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.5 REB 6.9 AST 5.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.7 REB 3.7 AST 1.7 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.3 REB 4.3 AST 1.6 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 14.6 REB 4.0 AST 5.1 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.9 REB 3.8 AST 2.9 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.7 REB 4.5 AST 4.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.1 REB 4.7 AST 4.5 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.7 REB 11.0 AST 3.7 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Donovan Clingan
OR
132.8
DR
107.4
PTS
12.6
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.4
DR
109.6
PTS
14.4
SG
Damian Lillard
OR
122.6
DR
115.5
PTS
20.4
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
112.8
DR
109.2
PTS
11.6
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
122.6
DR
112.5
PTS
23.2
VS
Dylan Harper
OR
126.7
DR
111.2
PTS
18.7
PF
Scoot Henderson
OR
79.6
DR
117.0
PTS
7.9
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
103.1
DR
110.6
PTS
15.4
C
Toumani Camara
OR
136.6
DR
114.9
PTS
14.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
116.1
DR
97.1
PTS
29.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio is favored to win, with a 71% probability. Portland is expected to start Donovan Clingan, Damian Lillard, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson and Toumani Camara, while San Antonio’s projected five is De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total of 229 points points to a relatively high-scoring game. The expected margin is about one point for San Antonio, indicating a close finish despite the stronger win probability.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.3 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - San Antonio Spurs) -0.5 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have risen over the last five games, with San Antonio gaining momentum more quickly than Portland.

Portland Trail Blazers

1543.0 +20.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Los Angeles Lakers 1543.0 -10.0
2026-11-04 Phoenix Suns 1553.0 +9.2
2026-11-02 Denver Nuggets 1543.8 +10.5
2026-10-31 Utah Jazz 1533.3 +11.0
2026-10-29 Memphis Grizzlies 1522.3 -

San Antonio Spurs

1547.4 +35.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Sacramento Kings 1547.4 +8.7
2026-11-04 Dallas Mavericks 1538.7 +8.4
2026-11-02 Utah Jazz 1530.3 +8.7
2026-10-31 Minnesota Timberwolves 1521.6 +10.0
2026-10-28 Utah Jazz 1511.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 118 124 -6
Phoenix Suns 132 119 +13
Denver Nuggets 118 110 +8
Utah Jazz 112 90 +22
Memphis Grizzlies 103 124 -21

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 124 109 +15
Dallas Mavericks 112 111 +1
Utah Jazz 119 97 +22
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 111 +10
Utah Jazz 117 111 +6

Game Analysis

San Antonio’s expected starting group is the clearest reason for its stronger win forecast, particularly Victor Wembanyama’s combination of scoring and interior defense. He averages 29 points, giving the Spurs a major scoring presence. Portland’s home-court advantage pushes in the other direction, keeping the projected margin tight. The Spurs arrive on a three-game winning streak, including a one-point win over Dallas. Portland has won two of its past three, but its latest game was a loss to the Lakers. That recent stretch gives San Antonio a modest form advantage, while the Blazers have shown they can score in wins over Phoenix and Denver.

Final Prediction

Portland’s clearest route to an upset is Deni Avdija sustaining his scoring pressure against San Antonio’s defense. If he can help the Blazers keep pace with Wembanyama’s production, the home-court boost could tip a projected near-even margin their way.

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