Detroit Pistons vs Washington Wizards Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Detroit Pistons

Home Team
81.5%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
18.5%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Detroit Pistons

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +16.1 Detroit Pistons
Home-court advantage +7.6 Detroit Pistons
Recent team form +7.4 Detroit Pistons
Season record & ratings +1.3 Detroit Pistons
Home/road record +1.2 Detroit Pistons

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 82% for Detroit Pistons. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Detroit Pistons
PTS 11.3 REB 8.8 AST 5.1 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.1 REB 5.7 AST 7.7 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.7 3PM 3.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.6 REB 5.3 AST 1.1 3PM 0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.8 REB 7.1 AST 2.7 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Washington Wizards
PTS 16.1 REB 6.2 AST 2.4 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.4 REB 7.7 AST 1.7 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.6 REB 9.2 AST 2.3 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.0 AST 4.4 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 4.2 AST 6.8 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ausar Thompson
OR
108.6
DR
104.0
PTS
9.5
VS
AJ Dybantsa
OR
104.2
DR
115.2
PTS
16.0
SG
Cade Cunningham
OR
110.7
DR
103.9
PTS
22.9
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
115.4
DR
110.6
PTS
10.6
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
130.6
DR
108.1
PTS
18.2
VS
Anthony Davis
OR
108.0
DR
106.0
PTS
23.4
PF
John Collins
OR
100.1
DR
107.6
PTS
9.2
VS
Kyshawn George
OR
110.6
DR
115.9
PTS
18.5
C
Paul Reed
OR
118.8
DR
104.6
PTS
12.2
VS
Trae Young
OR
111.3
DR
116.7
PTS
18.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit is favored with an 82% win probability, with the home floor and its projected starting group driving the clearest separation. Detroit is projected to start Ausar Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Paul Reed, while Washington is expected to open with AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George and Trae Young.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 216 combined points, with Detroit ahead by about 3. That points to a close game rather than a comfortable margin, with a relatively restrained scoring total.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 215.6 Most likely outcome: 215 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Washington Wizards) 3.4 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Detroit’s rating has been essentially stable over its last five games, while Washington’s has fallen sharply.

Detroit Pistons

1529.9 -0.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Lakers 1529.9 -10.4
2026-11-04 Philadelphia 76ers 1540.3 -11.1
2026-11-02 Charlotte Hornets 1551.4 +11.5
2026-10-30 Brooklyn Nets 1539.9 +9.6
2026-10-28 Charlotte Hornets 1530.3 -

Washington Wizards

1479.7 -21.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Oklahoma City Thunder 1479.7 -10.5
2026-11-06 Atlanta Hawks 1490.2 -9.5
2026-11-04 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 -12.0
2026-11-02 Orlando Magic 1511.7 +10.1
2026-10-30 Charlotte Hornets 1501.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Detroit Pistons

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 116 121 -5
Philadelphia 76ers 106 112 -6
Charlotte Hornets 124 91 +33
Brooklyn Nets 110 94 +16
Charlotte Hornets 97 89 +8

Washington Wizards

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 75 114 -39
Atlanta Hawks 132 139 -7
Atlanta Hawks 105 120 -15
Orlando Magic 103 94 +9
Charlotte Hornets 95 79 +16

Game Analysis

The lineup comparison is the clearest separator: Detroit’s starters offer a stronger overall profile in the supplied ratings, while Washington’s projected group has several weaker defensive marks. Cade Cunningham supplies Detroit’s leading scoring average at 23 points, but Anthony Davis matches him at 23, giving Washington a direct scoring answer. Home court also matters, and recent form supports Detroit despite its own two straight losses. The Pistons stayed within five of the Lakers and six of Philadelphia, while Washington has dropped three in a row, including a 39-point defeat to Oklahoma City.

Final Prediction

Washington’s route to an upset is Davis exploiting Detroit’s lower-scoring frontcourt while Young and George keep the perimeter productive.

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