Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
14.4%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
85.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +39.9 San Antonio Spurs
Home-court advantage +7.6 Phoenix Suns
Season record & ratings +2.7 San Antonio Spurs
Home/road record +2.3 San Antonio Spurs
Recent team form +2.1 Phoenix Suns

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 86% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 24.1 REB 3.8 AST 3.9 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.9 REB 4.6 AST 2.2 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.1 REB 3.9 AST 3.1 3PM 1.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.7 REB 8.1 AST 2.9 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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PTS 7.6 REB 6.6 AST 3.2 3PM 0.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 13.4 REB 4.7 AST 5.0 3PM 0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 4.3 AST 2.6 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.7 AST 4.0 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.7 REB 5.8 AST 4.2 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.1 REB 11.8 AST 3.6 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Devin Booker
OR
117.0
DR
123.8
PTS
25.2
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
122.5
DR
108.5
PTS
13.8
SG
Dillon Brooks
OR
115.1
DR
122.9
PTS
16.8
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
118.5
DR
108.1
PTS
11.9
SF
Jalen Green
OR
90.5
DR
123.2
PTS
12.4
VS
Dylan Harper
OR
125.4
DR
110.2
PTS
18.1
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
127.5
DR
116.2
PTS
16.9
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
105.0
DR
109.7
PTS
15.3
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
107.3
DR
122.3
PTS
6.5
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.1
DR
97.0
PTS
29.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors San Antonio, giving the Spurs an 86% chance to win. Phoenix is expected to start Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Miles Bridges and Oso Ighodaro, while San Antonio is expected to start De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 231 points, with San Antonio favored by 9. That points to a moderately high-scoring game and a comfortable Spurs win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.4 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - San Antonio Spurs) -8.8 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are rising, but San Antonio’s momentum is much stronger, up 38.3 points over five games compared with Phoenix’s 4.5-point gain.

Phoenix Suns

1480.5 +4.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Houston Rockets 1480.5 +11.3
2026-11-05 Orlando Magic 1469.2 +11.0
2026-11-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1458.2 -9.2
2026-11-02 Golden State Warriors 1467.4 -8.6
2026-10-30 Denver Nuggets 1476.0 -

San Antonio Spurs

1559.9 +38.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Portland Trail Blazers 1559.9 +12.5
2026-11-06 Sacramento Kings 1547.4 +8.7
2026-11-04 Dallas Mavericks 1538.7 +8.4
2026-11-02 Utah Jazz 1530.3 +8.7
2026-10-31 Minnesota Timberwolves 1521.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 102 99 +3
Orlando Magic 117 104 +13
Portland Trail Blazers 119 132 -13
Golden State Warriors 113 116 -3
Denver Nuggets 120 127 -7

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 125 103 +22
Sacramento Kings 124 109 +15
Dallas Mavericks 112 111 +1
Utah Jazz 119 97 +22
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 111 +10

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the expected starting groups. San Antonio’s projected lineup rates better as a unit at both ends, while Phoenix’s starters include several defensive vulnerabilities. Wembanyama adds a major scoring presence, averaging 29 points, and his defensive numbers also stand out. Phoenix’s home court and recent form give the Suns some counterweight. They have won two straight, but San Antonio has won three in a row, and the Spurs’ season and road indicators also favor them. That combination helps explain why the forecast still leans strongly toward the visitors.

Final Prediction

A standout scoring night from Booker could help Phoenix offset San Antonio’s stronger projected starting group. If the Suns cannot make that perimeter scoring count, the Spurs’ lineup advantage is likely to decide the game.

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