New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-10

New York Knicks

Home Team
68.4%
VS

Milwaukee Bucks

Away Team
31.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New York Knicks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New York Knicks
Starting five +6.1 New York Knicks
Season record & ratings +1.9 New York Knicks
Recent team form +1.7 New York Knicks
Home/road record +1.5 New York Knicks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for New York Knicks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 25.6 REB 3.5 AST 5.3 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.6 REB 6.7 AST 4.2 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.2 REB 11.9 AST 4.1 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.9 REB 3.1 AST 2.1 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 5.3 AST 2.9 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Milwaukee Bucks
PTS 12.8 REB 6.2 AST 2.1 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.9 REB 4.9 AST 2.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.8 REB 4.8 AST 2.3 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.7 REB 5.7 AST 2.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.5 REB 4.1 AST 3.4 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
113.7
PTS
26.2
VS
Brayden Burries
OR
118.8
DR
121.8
PTS
10.5
SG
Josh Hart
OR
99.9
DR
103.1
PTS
8.6
VS
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
OR
116.7
DR
123.3
PTS
15.2
SF
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
123.4
DR
103.6
PTS
20.9
VS
Kyle Kuzma
OR
104.4
DR
120.8
PTS
11.6
PF
Mikal Bridges
OR
93.2
DR
110.6
PTS
6.6
VS
Myles Turner
OR
86.1
DR
117.5
PTS
7.1
C
OG Anunoby
OR
113.7
DR
109.0
PTS
16.4
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
115.7
DR
123.0
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New York is favored at 68%, with home court and a stronger projected starting group supporting the pick. The expected starters are Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby for New York, and Brayden Burries, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner and Tyler Herro for Milwaukee.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 222 combined points and an 11-point Knicks margin. That suggests a moderate-scoring game with a comfortable result for New York.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.9 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Milwaukee Bucks) 11.0 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New York’s rating has climbed steadily over its last five games, while Milwaukee’s has declined steadily.

New York Knicks

1514.2 +22.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Cleveland Cavaliers 1514.2 +11.7
2026-11-04 Chicago Bulls 1502.5 +10.2
2026-11-02 Brooklyn Nets 1492.3 +9.4
2026-10-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1482.9 -8.4
2026-10-28 Chicago Bulls 1491.3 -

Milwaukee Bucks

1424.6 -33.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Boston Celtics 1424.6 -8.5
2026-11-06 Toronto Raptors 1433.1 -9.8
2026-11-04 Boston Celtics 1442.9 -7.2
2026-11-02 Minnesota Timberwolves 1450.1 -8.3
2026-10-31 Cleveland Cavaliers 1458.4 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 97 +12
Chicago Bulls 135 105 +30
Brooklyn Nets 103 90 +13
Philadelphia 76ers 93 98 -5
Chicago Bulls 133 127 +6

Milwaukee Bucks

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 97 117 -20
Toronto Raptors 107 121 -14
Boston Celtics 102 109 -7
Minnesota Timberwolves 100 112 -12
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 136 -25

Game Analysis

Home court is the largest support for New York, and its projected starting five is another advantage. Brunson’s 26-point scoring average gives the Knicks a clear lead creator, while Milwaukee’s starters have less favorable defensive numbers across the lineup. The teams are moving in opposite directions: New York has won three straight, while Milwaukee has lost three in a row. Tyler Herro, averaging 21 points, is a strong scoring option for the Bucks, but their recent slide and falling rating leave them needing more from the starting group around him.

Final Prediction

If Herro can score efficiently against New York’s starting backcourt, Milwaukee has a direct way to make the projected gap much smaller.

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