Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
45%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #17
55%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #26 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #59 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #61 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #44 (2024-07-29)

Jakub Mensik

  • Current Rank: #17 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #23 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #48 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #48 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #65 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 66.0
ELO Rating: 1542.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1705.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 84.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.3

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 63.0
ELO Rating: 1457.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.1
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Toronto 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Washington 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Washington 184 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Washington 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Washington 87 min

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Boyer (2-0) hard Toronto 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) grass Eastbourne 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
1
Jakub Mensik
Hard
2 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 26th, faces 17th-ranked Jakub Mensik on hard court. The match is expected to be competitive, with Mensik holding a slight edge with a 55.32% probability of winning compared to Davidovich Fokina's 44.68%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is set at 23.

Match Analysis

Both players are showcasing solid performances, but their statistics reveal some intriguing differences. Davidovich Fokina has a higher form index (66.04) compared to Mensik (62.98), indicating recent stronger form. However, Mensik's Elo rating is notably lower than Davidovich Fokina's (1542.73 vs. 1457.04), which suggests he has faced slightly tougher competition. In terms of fatigue, Davidovich Fokina has spent 84 minutes on court, while Mensik has logged 89 minutes, implying a marginally higher fatigue level for Mensik. The surface strength index also favors Mensik (16.06) over Davidovich Fokina (11.85), indicating better adaptability on hard courts. Examining their recent performances, Davidovich Fokina has won his last three matches without dropping a set, showcasing dominance in his games against Corentin Moutet, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz. Conversely, Mensik's record is mixed; he won his last match against Tristan Boyer but had a disappointing performance against Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon, losing without winning a set. This inconsistency could affect his confidence going into the match against a player on a winning streak.

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik's edge in surface strength and the probability of winning suggests he may capitalize on any lapses from Davidovich Fokina, even though the latter is on a streak. A key factor to watch will be how Mensik manages his fatigue and whether he can maintain solid service games against Davidovich Fokina's formidable return game.