Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Joao Fonseca vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #34
54%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #73
46%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #34 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #24 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #65 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-02-10

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #73 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #103 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 29.2
ELO Rating: 1383.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 62.7
Return Rating: 53.1

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 679.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1688.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match in Buenos Aires, Argentina is on clay at a 250-level event. The model gives Joao Fonseca the slight edge: predicted winner Joao Fonseca 54.09% vs Alejandro Tabilo 45.91%, with a projected total of about 23.93 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fonseca (rank 34) arrives with an Elo of 1383.63, a form index of 29.16 and zero minutes of fatigue recorded in this tournament. His surface strength index on clay is 11.69, and his mean serve index is 62.74 while his mean return index is 53.07. Tabilo (rank 73) has a lower Elo (679.51) but a higher form index at 38.21 and 110 minutes of accumulated fatigue from earlier matches here. His clay surface strength index is 6.88. There is a large gap in serve: Tabilo’s mean serve index (98.80) exceeds Fonseca’s by well over 5 points, and his mean return index (88.75) likewise outpaces Fonseca’s by a substantial margin — both differences are likely to shape hold/break dynamics. Looking at recent results, Fonseca is 1–2 in his last three matches: a win over Denis Shapovalov in Paris and two straight losses in Paris and at the Australian Open, including a long 174-minute match. Tabilo is also 1–2 across his last three, with a straight-sets win in Buenos Aires followed by two earlier hard-court defeats; his 110 minutes of tournament court time reflect those clay-court earlier rounds.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Joao Fonseca - Alejandro Tabilo) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 12.97 total (predicted aces ≈12.97) with expected double faults around 5.16. On clay, ace counts typically fall because the slower surface and high bounce give returners extra time, so the projected aces are moderate. Given Tabilo’s significantly higher serve index, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the aces, while the expected double faults may increase if rallies and fatigue lengthen on clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s higher ranking, superior Elo and fresher legs give him a narrow edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how Tabilo’s powerful serve and return metrics translate on slow clay — if his serve remains effective despite fatigue, the match could tilt back in his favor.

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