Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #125
23%
VS

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #42
77%
Expected Total Games: 26.7
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

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Ranking Trends

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #125 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #156 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #146 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #139 2025-05-19

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #42 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #30 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 47.7
ELO Rating: 1624.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 128.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 91.8

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 45.1
ELO Rating: 1698.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1764.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.6
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 14.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Stan Wawrinka
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Raul Brancaccio (2-1) clay Geneva 128 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefano Travaglia (2-1) clay Rome 138 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) clay Barcelona 153 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Dubai 73 min

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stan Wawrinka
vs
0
Alex Michelsen
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Geneva, Switzerland, the round of 16 on clay at this 250-level tournament pits veteran Stan Wawrinka against rising Alex Michelsen. The model strongly favors Michelsen to progress: Alex Michelsen 77.19% vs Stan Wawrinka 22.81%, with a predicted total of about 26.71 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Wawrinka arrives with a ranking of 125, a form index of 47.69 and an Elo of 1624.46. His cumulative fatigue in this event is substantial (128 minutes on court), though his mean serve index (95.12) and mean return index (91.81) remain high; his surface strength index on clay is modest at 8.02. Michelsen sits higher in the rankings at 42, with a comparable form index (45.10) and a slightly stronger Elo of 1698.18. His fatigue is lower (80 minutes), his mean serve index is roughly equal to Wawrinka’s (95.67), and his surface strength index on clay is 13.07. Recent results underline the contrast in momentum. Wawrinka has won two of his last three matches on clay (geneva and rome), posting long matches of 128 and 138 minutes before a loss in Barcelona. Michelsen has one win and two losses in his last three, but his Geneva victory over Sebastián Báez was brisk (80 minutes), suggesting fresher legs here. Both players show resilience on clay, but Michelsen’s higher ranking and lower fatigue tilt the balance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.7 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stan Wawrinka - Alex Michelsen) -3.5 Most likely spread: -4 (Alex Michelsen wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: predicted aces ≈ 10.38 for the match, while the double faults prediction sits at about 4.29 expected double faults. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing surface typically reduces ace totals and can increase unforced service errors as matches lengthen. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating, so the predicted aces count reflects both strong serving profiles tempered by the clay court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.4 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stan Wawrinka's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (49.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Michelsen’s higher ranking, better Elo and lower tournament fatigue give him the edge here. The key factor to watch will be how Wawrinka’s legs hold up late in rallies and whether Michelsen can convert breaks early in what the model sees as a relatively short, decisive match.

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