Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Blockx

Rank: #69
28%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
72%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Blockx

  • Current #69 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #121 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #122 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #151 2025-04-21

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #5 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Alexander Blockx

Form Index: 86.7
ELO Rating: 1705.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1745.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 250.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.7
Clay: 42.5
Grass: 39.5
Serve Rating: 72.8
Return Rating: 63.9

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 72.2
ELO Rating: 1857.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1935.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.1
Clay: 45.7
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Alexander Blockx
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) clay Madrid 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-1) clay Madrid 139 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) clay Munich 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) clay Munich 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Madrid 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (1-1) clay Monte Carlo 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Miami 113 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Blockx
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid’s clay courts host a Round of 32 clash in the Masters 1000, pitting rising Belgian Alexander Blockx against Canada’s Felix Auger‑Aliassime. The model favors Auger‑Aliassime (71.73%) over Blockx (28.27%), with a predicted total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked and more established player (No. 5) with an Elo of 1857.4, while Blockx sits at No. 69 with an Elo of 1705.4. Form indices show Blockx (86.7) in strong recent momentum versus Felix (72.2), but fatigue is a clear swing factor: Blockx has accumulated 250 minutes in Madrid compared with Felix’s 81 minutes. On clay both players have modest surface strength indices (Blockx 42.45, Felix 45.70), suggesting neither is a clay specialist, though Auger‑Aliassime’s experience at the top end gives him an edge in pressure moments. Serve and return profiles tilt heavily toward Felix. His mean serve index (98.64) dwarfs Blockx’s (72.84) by more than 25 points, and his mean return index (87.44) likewise exceeds Blockx’s (63.93) by a wide margin — both differences are meaningful and likely decisive. Over their last three matches Blockx has shown toughness in Madrid with consecutive three-set wins (Nakashima, Garin) after a loss in Munich, while Felix has been efficient this week (straight sets vs. Gaubas) and mixed in Monte Carlo, beating Ruud but losing to Sinner.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Blockx - Felix Auger-Aliassime) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the predicted aces total is 8.46, and predicted double faults total is 4.58. Given clay’s slower ball and higher bounce, the expected aces figure is restrained compared with faster surfaces, while the expected double faults reflect the physical strain that can produce errors. Felix’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces toward the higher end of that total, even on clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger‑Aliassime’s superior serve/return combination and higher Elo give him the clear edge in Madrid despite Blockx’s recent form and heavy minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Blockx’s accumulated fatigue blunts his movement and serve return intensity, allowing Felix to close out service games efficiently.

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