Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Edas Butvilas

Rank: #256
36%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #11
64%
Expected Total Games: 30.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Edas Butvilas

  • Current #256 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #254 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #261 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #235 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #211 2025-05-19

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #11 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #11 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Edas Butvilas

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1569.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1785.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 238.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 2.8
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 87.4

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 24.7
ELO Rating: 1711.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1802.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.3
Clay: 34.1
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Edas Butvilas
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Edas Butvilas
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 clash in Geneva, Switzerland — a 250-level clay event — pits rising Edas Butvilas against established big-hitter Alexander Bublik. The model favors Bublik (64.37%) over Butvilas (35.63%), with a projected match length of roughly 30 games (expected total games: 30.02).

Match Analysis

On paper the contrast is clear: Butvilas sits at No. 256 with an Elo of 1569.6 and a form index of 35.9, while Bublik arrives ranked 11th with an Elo of 1711.8 and a form index of 24.7. Butvilas carries significant court time in Geneva (238 minutes of cumulative fatigue), whereas Bublik shows no tournament fatigue logged. Surface strength favors Bublik (surface index 34.06 vs Butvilas 10.32), though neither profile marks clay as a dominant surface for them. Both players possess strong serving metrics — mean serve indices of 94.30 (Butvilas) and 95.49 (Bublik) — and robust return numbers (Butvilas 87.37, Bublik 84.23). Recent form diverges: Butvilas comes in hot, unbeaten in three matches at this event with straight-set wins over Lorenzo Sonego, James Duckworth and Alexandre Muller. Bublik’s recent clay results are mixed: a comfortable win over Sebastian Baez in Rome was followed by losses to Learner Tien and Stefanos Tsitsipas, illustrating inconsistency on clay this season.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 30.0 Most likely outcome: 30 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Edas Butvilas - Alexander Bublik) -1.2 Most likely spread: -2 (Alexander Bublik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 13.26 for the match while the expected double faults total 4.82. On clay, predicted aces are suppressed compared with faster surfaces and the expected double faults are modestly higher due to longer points and physical demand. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve rating here, so the predicted aces reflect two big servers moderated by slow, high-bouncing clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Edas Butvilas's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (29.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s higher ranking, superior Elo and clearer clay surface strength give him the edge, especially if he can stay consistent on serve and avoid lapses. The key factor to watch will be Butvilas’s fitness late in sets — his heavy minutes in Geneva could open opportunities for Bublik to pressure returns as rallies lengthen.

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