Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Zverev is driven primarily by his recent record at this level (adding 6.5 percentage points), his overall strength (6.3 points) and his surface fit (5.2 points). Zverev arrives as the clear higher-ranked player at No. 2, with an Elo of 2087.63 and a form index of 74.12. His surface strength index on hard courts is 55.86, his mean serve index is 97.53 and his mean return index is 89.86. He has accumulated 870 minutes on court in this event, reflecting deep runs and some fatigue to monitor. Khachanov provides a contrasting profile. He is ranked 49, with an Elo of 1871.90 and a form index of 80.16. His mean serve index is 95.99 and his mean return index is 87.35. His surface strength index on hard is notably lower at 37.34. The model gives a small edge to Khachanov’s serve and return matchup, contributing 2.5 points toward him, but that is not enough to overcome Zverev’s advantages in overall strength and recent level. Over the last three matches at the US Open, Zverev has been dominant, winning all three matches in straight sets. Khachanov is unbeaten at this event as well, but his route included a five set match two rounds ago and a straight sets win most recently.