Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
89%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #67
11%
Expected Total Games: 21.6
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Why the Model Favors Alexander Zverev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +11.2 Alexander Zverev
Recent record by level +10.3 Alexander Zverev
Surface fit +8.7 Alexander Zverev
Serve & return game +7.4 Alexander Zverev
Recent form +3.9 Alexander Zverev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 89% for Alexander Zverev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #2 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #3 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #3 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-10-27

Martin Landaluce

  • Current #67 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #63 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #99 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #149 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #133 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 2115.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2070.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.5
Clay: 57.1
Grass: 48.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.9

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 15.4
ELO Rating: 1538.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 20.2
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Martin Landaluce
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Zverev is strongly favoured, at 89% to Landaluce’s 11%. The expected total is 21.6 games.

Match Analysis

Ranked second to Landaluce’s 67th, Zverev has the stronger overall profile. He beat Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik in Shanghai before losing to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, while Landaluce has lost his last three listed matches, including to Stan Wawrinka. The hard court also suits Zverev more, and he is the stronger returner. That should give him more chances to pressure Landaluce’s service games, while his small edge on serve offers better protection in his own.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.6 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Zverev - Martin Landaluce) +5.4 Most likely spread: +6 (Alexander Zverev wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Zverev is projected to hit 8.3 aces and Landaluce 5.4, with 2.3 and 4.2 double faults respectively. Zverev’s slight serving advantage supports the higher ace total, while Landaluce’s double-fault estimate raises the risk of giving away points against the stronger returner.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.4 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Alexander Zverev 8.3 + Martin Landaluce 5.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Alexander Zverev 2.3 + Martin Landaluce 4.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 8.3 aces

Martin Landaluce

Expected 5.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 2.3 double faults

Martin Landaluce

Expected 4.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Zverev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (64.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s best chance is to turn his serve into a source of free points and keep the double faults down. If he cannot, Zverev’s return advantage could make the gap in their recent results decisive.

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