Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexei Popyrin vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #47
43%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
57%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 16.1
ELO Rating: 1422.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 86.7

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 1683.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin

Alexander Bublik

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 of the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament taking place in Paris, Alexei Popyrin faces Alexander Bublik on hard courts. The prediction favors Bublik as the winner, with a probability of 57.46% compared to Popyrin's 42.54%. The expected total number of games played in this match is projected to be around 24.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 47, Alexei Popyrin has a form index of 16.07 and an Elo rating of 1422. His performance on hard courts has seen him struggle recently, as reflected by his cumulative fatigue score of 0.0, indicating he has not played long matches in the current tournament. His mean serve index stands at a high 97.77, while his mean return index is 86.67. In contrast, Alexander Bublik, ranked 16, boasts a considerably higher form index of 50.07 and an Elo rating of 1684. Like Popyrin, Bublik has no cumulative fatigue, but his surface strength index of 10.59 and mean serve index of 95.54 put him in a competitive position. Notably, Popyrin's serve index exceeds Bublik's by more than 5 points, but the return index difference is marginal, with Bublik slightly lagging. In their last three matches, Popyrin has faced a series of tough opponents, losing each match without winning a set, which may negatively impact his confidence. His recent performances include losses to Matteo Berrettini, Sebastian Korda, and Jannik Sinner. Conversely, Bublik has shown more resilience, achieving a win against Francisco Cerundolo and Alejandro Tabilo, though he faced a defeat against Jannik Sinner in his latest match.

Final Prediction

Alexander Bublik's higher ranking and superior form index give him a significant advantage heading into this matchup. Popyrin's recent struggles could prove detrimental, while Bublik's ability to bounce back from losses may be crucial. The key factor to monitor will be Bublik's return game, as it could influence the overall flow of the match.

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