Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #51
31%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
69%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #51 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #54 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-02-10

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #8 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #8 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 919.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1670.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 79.2
Return Rating: 39.5

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 68.6
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1676.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Montpellier 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Rotterdam (Netherlands), a hard-court round of 32 in an ATP 500-level event, Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored to beat Alexei Popyrin. The model predicts Auger-Aliassime with a 69.46% chance to win versus 30.54% for Popyrin, and expects about 24.24 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix enters the match as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a strong form index (68.57) and a very high Elo (4062.00). Alexei is ranked 51st, shows a low form index (0.0) and a much lower Elo (919.50). Both arrive with no accumulated fatigue in the event. Surface strength indices favor Auger-Aliassime (28.84) over Popyrin (7.44), indicating a clearer comfort edge on hard courts for Felix. Serve and return metrics create a notable contrast: Auger-Aliassime’s mean serve index (98.44) exceeds Popyrin’s (79.17) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (87.86) is substantially higher than Popyrin’s (39.53). Those gaps suggest Felix will have both a heavier serve profile and superior ability to attack returns. Recent results reinforce that divide — Popyrin’s last three matches on hard courts resulted in straight-set and five-set losses (no wins), while Auger-Aliassime has won his last three matches in Montpellier comfortably, including a couple of straight-set victories and one three-set match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Felix Auger-Aliassime) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Alexei Popyrin wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 15.91 total, with an expected double faults figure near 5.94. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate: the surface neither inflates nor suppresses them drastically. Given Felix’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which will also influence the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s higher ranking, superior Elo, stronger recent form and clear advantages in serving and returning give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how often Popyrin can neutralize Auger-Aliassime’s serve and generate break chances early in sets.

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