Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Alexei Popyrin vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #25
57%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #57
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #25 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #27 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #24 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #28 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #51 2024-05-20

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #57 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #89 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #159 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #510 2024-05-20

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 1581.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.8
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 87.2

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 53.0
ELO Rating: 791.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 72.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-0) clay Geneva 72 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabio Fognini (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) clay Madrid 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Madrid 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the Geneva tournament in Switzerland features Alexei Popyrin facing off against Jacob Fearnley on clay. With a predicted win probability of 57.29% for Popyrin compared to 42.71% for Fearnley, the total number of games is estimated to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Alexei Popyrin, currently ranked 25, holds a form index of 45.57 and an Elo rating of 1581.11. His fatigue level stands at 147 minutes, suggesting he is somewhat worn out from previous matches. Popyrin's surface strength index is notably higher at 13.26, indicating his proficiency on clay. His mean serve index of 98.24 exceeds Fearnley's by over 3 points, giving him a slight advantage in serve quality, while his mean return index of 87.23 is slightly lower than Fearnley’s 88.74, though still competitive. In recent performances, Popyrin won his last match against Nicolas Jarry in Geneva after a grueling 147 minutes, demonstrating resilience. However, he faced a tougher loss against Daniil Medvedev in Rome, which may have affected his momentum. On the other hand, Jacob Fearnley, ranked 57, has a form index of 52.96 and an Elo rating of 791.05. With a fatigue level of only 72 minutes, he appears fresher. Fearnley won his most recent match against Dusan Lajovic, showcasing his ability to perform well on clay, but he previously struggled against Matteo Berrettini.

Final Prediction

Popyrin's higher rank, superior serve index, and recent match experience give him the edge over Fearnley. However, Fearnley's freshness and ability to handle pressure could play a crucial role in the outcome. The effectiveness of Popyrin's serve will be a key factor to watch as the match unfolds.

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