Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #22
65%
VS

Andrea Pellegrino

Rank: #155
35%
Expected Total Games: 27.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #22 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-05-05

Andrea Pellegrino

  • Current #155 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #143 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #139 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #139 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #167 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 62.5
ELO Rating: 1840.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 163.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 29.9
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 92.1

Andrea Pellegrino

Form Index: 58.5
ELO Rating: 1661.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 349.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 20.1
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 90.8

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Andrea Pellegrino
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (1-0) clay Rome 22 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-1) clay Rome 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Landaluce (2-1) clay Rome 131 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) clay Rome 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (1-0) clay Madrid 79 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Andrea Pellegrino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 32 on clay in Italy, Frances Tiafoe is favored to progress against Andrea Pellegrino. The model gives Tiafoe a 64.57% chance to win vs Pellegrino’s 35.43%, with an expected total of about 27.39 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 22) with an Elo of 1840.9 and a form index of 62.53, while Pellegrino sits at rank 155 with a 1661.8 Elo and a form index of 58.49. Surface strength favors Tiafoe as well (29.87 vs 20.10), suggesting he is more comfortable on clay. Fatigue is a notable factor: Tiafoe has logged 163 minutes in the event, whereas Pellegrino has accumulated 349 minutes — a big difference that could matter over long rallies on slow courts. Both players show similar serving profiles by the mean serve index (95.46 for Tiafoe vs 95.52 for Pellegrino), so there’s no meaningful edge in raw serve power; return indices are also close (Tiafoe 92.12, Pellegrino 90.84). Over the last three matches, Tiafoe has two wins and one loss — recent victories over Ignacio Buse and Alexei Popyrin bookend a loss to Tommy Paul, with multiple long matches on clay. Pellegrino comes in on a three-match winning streak in Rome (wins over Arthur Fils, Luca Nardi and Martin Landaluce), though his cumulative minutes suggest he has had more court time to reach this stage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.4 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Frances Tiafoe - Andrea Pellegrino) +2.1 Most likely spread: +2 (Frances Tiafoe wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay matchup is modest: the model projects 10.16 predicted aces for the match and 4.46 expected double faults. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing surface typically reduces ace totals and, combined with long exchanges, can increase error-prone serving late in matches. Given the nearly identical mean serve indices, neither player should dominate the ace count, but Pellegrino’s heavier minutes could inflate his double faults—aligning with this double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.2 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Frances Tiafoe's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (41.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher ranking, stronger Elo, better surface index and fresher legs give him the edge in Rome. The key factor to watch will be endurance: if Pellegrino’s accumulated court time undermines his serve consistency, Tiafoe’s superior return game is likely to settle the tie.

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