Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #10
50%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
50%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 1959.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1876.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 238.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.5
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 26.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.5

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1554.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1709.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 160.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-1) hard Toronto 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Toronto 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Washington 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) hard Los Cabos 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Los Cabos 138 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) hard Toronto 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Toronto 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Washington 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Washington 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Washington 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Andrey Rublev faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on hard courts. With a closely matched predicted outcome, Rublev is favored to win with a probability of 50.26%, while Davidovich Fokina's chances stand at 49.74%. The expected total number of games in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Andrey Rublev holds a rank of 10, showcasing a solid form index of 52.71, along with an Elo rating of 1959.68. His cumulative fatigue level is 238 minutes, indicating a significant amount of court time recently. Rublev's surface strength index is 15.53, suggesting he is well-versed on hard courts. In contrast, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is ranked 26 with a higher form index of 65.67 and an Elo rating of 1554.86. His fatigue level is lower at 160 minutes, which may be an advantage in stamina. Rublev’s mean serve index (97.81) surpasses Davidovich Fokina’s (94.72) by over 5 points, highlighting his superior serving capabilities. Meanwhile, their mean return indices are closely matched, with Rublev at 87.54 and Davidovich Fokina at 87.38, indicating a competitive edge in return play for both. In their recent performances, Rublev has won 2 out of his last 3 matches, with a notable victory against Lorenzo Sonego despite a longer match duration of 152 minutes. Conversely, Davidovich Fokina is on a winning streak, having won all three of his previous matches in Toronto, demonstrating consistent form and confidence.

Final Prediction

Rublev's stronger serving ability and experience on hard courts provide him with a slight edge over Davidovich Fokina. A key factor to monitor during the match will be Rublev's ability to maintain his serve under pressure, as it could dictate the flow and outcome of the contest.