Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jacob Fearnley vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #78
39%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #17
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #78 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #55 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #77 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #98 2024-10-28

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #17 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #11 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #7 2024-10-28

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 53.8
ELO Rating: 915.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 179.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.3

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 26.1
ELO Rating: 1680.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1842.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 27.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Andrey Rublev
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jacob Fearnley and Andrey Rublev at the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris promises to be a thrilling encounter on hard court. The predicted winner is Andrey Rublev, with a probability of 60.63% for his victory, while Jacob Fearnley has a 39.37% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jacob Fearnley, currently ranked 78, has shown improved form with a form index of 53.75 and an Elo rating of 915.5. His cumulative fatigue stands at 179 minutes, which might impact his performance. Fearnley possesses a surface strength index of 7.02, a mean serve index of 96.21, and a mean return index of 88.26. Notably, his recent performances have been promising as he won his last two matches in Paris without dropping a set, showcasing his capacity to perform under pressure. Conversely, Andrey Rublev holds a much higher rank at 17, with a significantly better Elo rating of 1680.68 and a form index of 26.12, indicating recent struggles. However, he has zero cumulative fatigue, which may give him an advantage in this match. His surface strength index is 13.27, and he has a comparable mean serve index of 96.19, along with a mean return index of 87.30. Both players exhibit strong serving capabilities, but the difference in their mean return indices is minimal, suggesting that both players can respond well to serve.

Final Prediction

Andrey Rublev's higher ranking, zero fatigue, and greater experience in high-stakes matches provide him with a significant edge in this encounter. A key factor to monitor will be Fearnley's ability to maintain his recent form against Rublev's powerful baseline game, particularly given Rublev's resilience despite recent losses.

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