Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #10
64%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #37
36%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 49.0
ELO Rating: 1959.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1874.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.5
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 26.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.5

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 1062.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Toronto 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Washington 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) hard Los Cabos 148 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Los Cabos 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex Hernandez (2-0) hard Los Cabos 74 min

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Toronto 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (0-2) hard Washington 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Andrey Rublev is set to face Lorenzo Sonego on hard courts. With a predicted win probability of 63.86% for Rublev compared to 36.14% for Sonego, the anticipated total number of games played is around 23.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 10th, Andrey Rublev boasts a form index of 49.00 and an Elo rating of 1959.39, indicating solid performance levels. His cumulative fatigue stands at 86 minutes, which is relatively moderate for this stage of the tournament. Rublev's surface strength index of 15.52 reflects his proficiency on hard courts, while his impressive mean serve index of 97.81 and mean return index of 87.52 suggest a significant advantage in both serving and returning against his opponents. In contrast, Lorenzo Sonego, ranked 37th, presents a form index of 56.45 and an Elo rating of 1062.95. His cumulative fatigue at 79 minutes is slightly lower than Rublev's, but his surface strength index of 9.96 and mean serve index of 96.03 indicate he may struggle to match Rublev’s effectiveness on hard courts. The difference in their mean return indices further emphasizes Rublev's edge, as it is greater than 5 points. Looking at their recent performances, Rublev has faced challenges recently, losing two of his last three matches, including a straight-set loss to Learner Tien at the Washington tournament. However, he bounced back with a solid victory against Hugo Gaston in Toronto. Conversely, Sonego also experienced a mixed bag of results, winning his last match against Yunchaokete Bu, but suffering losses in his previous two outings, including a tough battle at Wimbledon.

Final Prediction

Rublev's higher ranking, superior serve and return indices, coupled with his recent victory, give him a distinct edge over Sonego in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be Rublev's ability to maintain his serving efficiency, as it may dictate the flow of the match.