Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #12
70%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #66
30%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 53.9
ELO Rating: 1763.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1832.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.5
Clay: 44.8
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 76.9
Return Rating: 70.7

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 59.5
ELO Rating: 1621.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1672.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 56.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 42.0
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.6

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) clay Barcelona 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) clay Barcelona 118 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-0) clay Barcelona 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) clay Barcelona 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) clay Barcelona 112 min

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) clay Madrid 56 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Munich 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Munich 130 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 124 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000 in Spain, round of 64 on clay, Andrey Rublev is projected to get past Vit Kopriva. The model favors Rublev 69.66% to win against Kopriva’s 30.34%, with a predicted total of about 23.12 games in the match—suggesting a straight-sets win with competitive scorelines rather than a long three-set battle.

Match Analysis

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with a stronger Elo (1763.4) and a solid mean serve index (76.9). His form index sits at 53.9 and he has no accumulated fatigue in the current event. Kopriva, ranked 66 with an Elo of 1621.8, posts a slightly better recent form index (59.5) but carries 56 minutes of court time into this match. Surface strength indices are close (Rublev 44.8, Kopriva 42.0), so neither holds a pronounced clay-court edge on paper. There are notable differences in serving and returning profiles: Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.8) outstrips Rublev by nearly 20 points, and his mean return index (92.6) is also markedly higher—both gaps exceed 5 points and will shape tactics. Recent results show Rublev coming off two wins in Barcelona before a straight-sets defeat to Arthur Fils; his three-match sequence reflects heavier court time (85–118 minutes) in earlier rounds. Kopriva’s last three matches include a tidy straight-sets win in Madrid (56 minutes) and a win and a loss in Munich; his mix of quick and longer encounters has left him with modest accumulated minutes this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Vit Kopriva) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Andrey Rublev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. Positive values indicate Andrey Rublev winning more games, negative values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 18.4 total, while the predicted double faults total is 4.89. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower because the slower, higher-bouncing surface reduces free points, and expected double faults can creep up with longer rallies and physical wear. Given Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, though clay will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Andrey Rublev versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Rublev’s higher ranking, superior Elo and lack of fatigue give him the statistical edge in Madrid, even against Kopriva’s hot serving and returning numbers. Watch Kopriva’s serve and return intensity early—if he imposes pressure immediately, he can force a tighter match than the projections suggest.

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