Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Arthur Fery

Rank: #35
23%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #26
77%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Why the Model Favors Lorenzo Musetti

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +5.7 Lorenzo Musetti
Overall strength +5.5 Lorenzo Musetti
Recent record by level +4.7 Lorenzo Musetti
Recent form +4.4 Lorenzo Musetti
Serve & return game +2.8 Lorenzo Musetti

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Lorenzo Musetti. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Fery

  • Current #35 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #161 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #186 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #196 2025-10-27

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #26 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #9 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #5 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 1746.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 26.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.9
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 90.3

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 56.3
ELO Rating: 1877.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1907.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 125.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.7
Clay: 42.7
Grass: 31.9
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Arthur Fery
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-0) hard Vienna 26 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Borna Gojo (0-2) hard Marseille 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Shanghai 209 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Shanghai 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (1-2) hard Tokio 123 min

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fery
vs
1
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lorenzo Musetti is the clear favourite in Vienna’s Round of 16, with the forecast giving him 77% to win and Arthur Fery 23%. The expected total is 24.9 games.

Match Analysis

Musetti’s stronger hard-court profile and higher overall level are central to the forecast. He is ranked 26th, compared with Fery at 35th, and has won his last three matches, including a straight-set win over Frances Tiafoe in Vienna. Musetti also has the slight serving advantage, although Fery’s return is a strength that could keep pressure on the Italian’s service games. Fery has spent only 26 minutes on court in Vienna, against 125 for Musetti, a substantial difference that could matter if the match becomes prolonged.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Musetti) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Lorenzo Musetti wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Musetti is projected to hit 4.8 aces and 1.8 double faults, while Fery is forecast for 3.4 aces and 1.7 double faults. Their serving profiles are close, and the hard court’s consistent bounce should give both a steady platform, with Musetti’s small serve advantage reflected in the ace gap.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.1 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Arthur Fery 3.4 + Lorenzo Musetti 4.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.5 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Arthur Fery 1.7 + Lorenzo Musetti 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Fery

Expected 3.4 aces

Lorenzo Musetti

Expected 4.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Fery

Expected 1.7 double faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Fery's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (46.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fery’s return gives him a specific way to unsettle the forecast: he needs to make Musetti work through more service points and turn the Italian’s heavier tournament workload into a factor.

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