Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Arthur Fils vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Arthur Fils

Rank: #21
74%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #92
26%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #21 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #23 (2024-07-29)

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current Rank: #92 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #96 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #151 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #203 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #807 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 73.4
ELO Rating: 2203.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.1
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 20.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 505.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1509.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Jarry (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Rome 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-1) clay Rome 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) clay Rome 67 min

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Toronto 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1-2) clay Rome 126 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (1-2) clay Rome 140 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Toronto Masters 1000 tournament on hard courts, Arthur Fils faces off against Pablo Carreno Busta. With a strong probability of 74.19% for victory, Fils is favored to win against Carreno Busta, who has a 25.81% chance of success. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Ranked 21, Arthur Fils enters this match with a form index of 73.44 and an Elo rating of 2203.73. His fatigue level stands at 0, indicating he is well-rested, while his surface strength index of 16.07 suggests he has adapted well to hard court conditions. In contrast, Pablo Carreno Busta, currently ranked 92, has a lower form index of 49.22 and an Elo rating of 505.07. His fatigue level of 141 minutes indicates he may be struggling with endurance during this tournament. The significant difference in their mean serve index (97.08 for Fils vs. 94.44 for Carreno Busta) highlights Fils’s superior serving capability, while their mean return index is closely matched (86.78 for Fils vs. 85.85 for Carreno Busta). In their recent performances, Fils has shown resilience despite mixed results, winning two out of his last three matches, albeit on clay surfaces. His recent victory at Roland Garros against Jaume Munar demonstrates his ability to compete at a high level. Meanwhile, Carreno Busta has had a more inconsistent run, winning his last match against Liam Draxl in Toronto but suffering a defeat against Frances Tiafoe at Roland Garros, where he failed to win a single set.

Final Prediction

Arthur Fils has a distinct edge over Pablo Carreno Busta, primarily due to his favorable ranking, superior form, and lack of fatigue. The key factor to watch during the match will be Fils’s service effectiveness, as his ability to secure easy points on serve could significantly influence the outcome.